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Category: General Election

Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

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Voting intention in my LD-Lab marginals poll, plus Brighton Pavilion: pic.twitter.com/lfGWEXSPAo — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 Labour set for gains as Lib Dem vote share halves in key marginals – my latest battleground polling on @ConHome: http://t.co/JpVP0KdkuP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 My poll of four seats on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, at a glance: pic.twitter.com/OilW2apAKd — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 But the choice of seats ignores the interesting battles Sorry about the delay…

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A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

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Tories take lead in new Ashcroft phone poll Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Ashcroft poll changes on last week CON 33 +5 LAB 31 -2 LD 9= UKIP 15 -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 The 5% increase in CON share in Ashcroft poll is outside the margin of error. Is DC's Juncker's stance giving him a boost? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Even though LAB would be behind on…

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The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

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LAB’s chances now rated at below 30% We’ve not looked at the overall GE2015 betting markets for some while but over the three and a half months since the budget there has been a steady decline in LAB prices with a tightening of both the hung parliament possibility and a CON majority. Check on the chart above to see how things have changed since the budget. A LAB majority down from nearly 40% to 29.8%; CON majority up nearly 5%…

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Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015

Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015

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Are we ready for a five and a half week long campaign? We’ve all known for four years that the Fixed Term Parliament Act lays down that the next general election will be held on May 7th 2015. One thing a lot of people have missed is that the formal campaign period will be far longer than we’ve seen in the past. The 2013 Electoral Registration & Administration Act 2013 extends the length of the statutory timetable for from 17…

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Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

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If that happens it’s seriously bad news for Dave At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015. Why we should take this poll finding seriously is what happened five years ago when it gave…

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If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

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You can still get better than evens on Labour At the last general election one of the most active constituency betting markets was on Brighton Pavillion where, as we all know, Caroline Lucas won through with a 31.3% vote share to become the Green party’s first MP. The result and vote changes are in the chart above. This victory came after years of work in the area during which the Greens built up a very strong councillor base. The big…

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Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

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One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union. Clearly the union has funded this for a purpose but the voting questions were asked first using Survation’s normal approach. The seats surveyed by phone…

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Welcome to SMERSH: Building a New, Better, Election Forecasting Model

Welcome to SMERSH: Building a New, Better, Election Forecasting Model

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Regular PBer’s will know that five years ago I built VIPA, a model that attempted to look at proportionate swings on a party-by-party basis to model results. This model was – to be quite frank – stolen by Nate Silver, and he used it with much bally-ho. While VIPA did a better job of predicting the 2010 election than UNS (it was noticeably more pessimistic on the LibDems than UNS, for example), it was not perfect. And so, 11 months…

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