Browsed by
Category: General Election

The GE2015 campaign will come down to the party with the weirdo leader versus the party that’s still toxic

The GE2015 campaign will come down to the party with the weirdo leader versus the party that’s still toxic

Comments 0 Comment

Get ready for what’s likely to be the most negative campaign ever It’s become the norm in recent general elections that a large part of the campaign is fought on almost totally negative grounds and we should expect nothing different in the run up to May 7th. Labour believes that the Tory brand remains toxic and a huge turn-off to key segments of voters. In the marginals the message will be that only LAB can stop CON. We saw this…

Read More Read More

Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic

Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic

Comments 0 Comment

Turnout filtering might be the key At the excellent PB gathering in Ilkley last night the big topic of conversation was the extraordinary Ashcroft national poll which saw the 2% CON lead of last week become a 7% LAB one. At 4pm each Monday afternoon since the start of May Lord Ashcroft has been publishing his weekly national phone poll. This has been a great addition to the overall polling mix particularly because testing political opinion in this way has…

Read More Read More

Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads with both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads with both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

Comments 0 Comment

So was that the Junkers boost that was? Just a week ago the Ashcroft phone poll recorded a CON lead of 2%. Last Friday Populus had the Tories just 1% behind. Well things look very different today with two polls both having LAB with a margin of 7%. Generally whenever a poll produces figures that are out of the ordinary we wisely say wait to see if this shift is seen in other surveys. Well that’s certainly happened today and…

Read More Read More

Dave is beating Ed on leader ratings but on nothing like the scale of Major over Kinnock ahead of GE1992

Dave is beating Ed on leader ratings but on nothing like the scale of Major over Kinnock ahead of GE1992

Comments 0 Comment

Cameron’s currently running just ahead of Kinnock One of the great hopes for the Tories as they face GE2015 with a deficit in the voting intention polls is what happened at GE1992. Then it will be recalled John Major was returned with a majority even though all the polls pointed to a hung parliament. At that election non-voting intention numbers like the leader satisfaction ratings were a better guide to the outcome. Could the same happen at GE2015? What is…

Read More Read More

Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

Comments 0 Comment

CON choose ex-UKIP leader to fight Thanet S Against Farage? My money's now going on LAB in this tight 3-way marginal pic.twitter.com/eG2CKD2MGQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014 The tactical anti-UKIP vote could now go to LAB Latest Thanet S betting Ukip favourite pic.twitter.com/c2sFbpGDLQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014

The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

Comments 0 Comment

For the first time there are now two Kippers for every Lib Dem You might expect that the polls for the first month after the Euro-elections would show a drift of support back to the main three Westminster parties, as UKIP and the minor parties receded in media and campaigning prominence.  If so, you’d be wrong.  The June figures, with changes on May are: Lab 34.3 (+0.6), Con 31.4 (-0.1), UKIP 15.8 (+0.8), LD 7.9 (-1.5) All three parties are…

Read More Read More

Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

Comments 0 Comment

Could Farage be named as candidate quite soon? At the time of the Newark by-election Nigel Farage indicated that he’d be announcing which seat he’d contest at GE2015 by “the end of the month”. Well we’ve now moved into July and we haven’t heard. But the speculation continues that Farage will choose the Kent seat of Thanet South which was won by the Tories from LAB at GE2010. It was one of the seats polled by Lord Ashcroft in May…

Read More Read More