This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% LAB one now. Later in the day I’m hoping that we should see the ICM Guardian poll which in July had CON 34. LAB 33, LD 12, UKIP 9. I’ve not had confirmation yet that this will…
CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2014 But Tories need bigger margin to ensure most seats Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short pic.twitter.com/VjaKSK0yLO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2014 And the fundamental problem for the blues remains: The killer figure…
Labour’s other crutch: First past the post Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice, has taken to describing the phenomenon of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers as Labour’s “crutch” for without this massive influx of support EdM’s party would be in a sorry state. I’d suggest that there’s another crutch that is equally if not more valuable – the way the electoral system works. Nothing, I think, better illustrates this than the GE2005 results for England’s 529 seats. The…
Populus Green total half that of Ashcroft After a period in which UKIP has been edging down across the polls there’ll be some relief at Farage Towers that today’s Lord Ashcroft poll has them at 18% – up 4 on a week ago. The chart shows the comparisons with the Populus online poll published earlier. The bigger picture is that another month has gone by and LAB is maintaining a lead albeit a small one. Twice since the Ashcroft poll…
In two massive rounds of polling the numbers have barely shifted In an article last month the Indy on Sunday political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, wrote: “My view, and this cannot be based on opinion polls, is that when the voters come to choose they will shy away from the prospect of Miliband as prime minister, just as they shied away from Neil Kinnock in 1992.†But John the unique polling resources that are available to us ahead…
For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”. The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros. Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May…
Con, Lab and LD all up, but so are Others So perhaps UKIP does need the oxygen of publicity after all. After recording a record score in June, Farage’s party is the biggest loser in July; indeed, the only loser. That June figure surprised many who thought that the absence from the papers and TV screens of what’s still in many ways a minor party would inevitably lead to a drop in vote share. It didn’t then but two months…
But Labour’s inherent electoral advantages could be being ignored Exactly 8 months today on April 1st 2015 the formal general election campaign will begin and my intention at the start of every month is to monitor betting prices on the Betfair exchange to see how the mood is changing. The chart above shows current latest trades on the firm’s GE2015 outcome market and has comparisons with what it was just before the March 2014 budget. As can be seen the…