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Category: General Election

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

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The numbers show that this is simply not the case You read and see this all the time both inside the Westminster bubble and out of it. Ukip voters, so the pervasive narrative goes, are simply ex-CON voters who can, if Lynton Crosby plays his cards properly, be seduced back into the fold thus providing the blues with the platform to secure an overall majority next May. Thus the following is a statement that many might find hard to comprehend…

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Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

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Yesterday’s batch of Lord Ashcroft polls of key CON-LAB marginals is further evidence that the betting price on CON majority is far too tight and that on a LAB one too long. It is very hard looking at all the voter dynamics to make any case whatsoever for a CON majority. Time is passing quickly and there’s nothing at all from the seats that will decide this election that the Tories are going to better their 2010 performance. Rather it…

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George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

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An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget? One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist. Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll. The…

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If it’s an IndyRef YES then CON can afford to lose 9 seats at GE2015 knowing it’d have a majority after partition

If it’s an IndyRef YES then CON can afford to lose 9 seats at GE2015 knowing it’d have a majority after partition

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Looking at the mathematics of a Scottish 2016 exit This post has been prompted by comments on previous threads about the impact on LAB chances should Scotland vote five weeks today for independence. The plan is that the actual separation should take place in March 2016 which could have an impact on what happens in the aftermath of next May’s UK general election. For clearly on separation Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats will cease to exist and the commons will be…

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Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

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LAB & CON level pegging amongst those certain to vote with @IpsosMORI . LAB 2% ahead with all expressing VI pic.twitter.com/Je4sGsBxGa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 Ipsos-MORI voting intentions if Boris/Osbo/Theresa were leaders. The inevitable Boris boost! pic.twitter.com/0WBx0vyavg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 All leaders up in the August @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings. Maybe cos they're on holiday! pic.twitter.com/ZHjNm38WOt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014

Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

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Understanding Labour’s “other crutch” We’ve talked a lot on PB about Labour’s “electoral crutch” – the big shift to it since 2010 of Lib Dem voters which has so far remained. Well Labour has another crutch – the electoral system which could be equally or even more important. UK general elections are not decided by aggregate national vote shares but by FPTP elections in 650 separate seats where voters choose which individuals they want as their MPs. Unlike the Euro…

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If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

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Look at the record for when LAB is in the lead Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM. He pointed out the following from his firm’s record over several general elections which on the face of it looks convincing. August 1996 ICM poll had LAB ahead by 12%. The result…

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The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

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And the inevitable “what if Boris was CON leader” questions Tonight’s big polling news is that Labour has moved up sharply in the monthly ICM phone poll for the Guardian. In July EdM’s party was 1% behind. Now they are 7% ahead. I must admit that I’m rather surprised by these latest findings and was expecting both main parties to be just about level-pegging. We’ll have to wait till the full data is out before we can work out what’s…

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