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New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

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From @IpsosMORI Scotland poll with vote changes on Scottish results at GE2017. This points to SNP gains from both LAB and CON CON 26 -2.6LAB 16 -11.1LD 11 +4.2SNP 44 +7.1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2019 This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be…

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GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

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Conservative leader Boris Johnson refuses to commit to an interview with Andrew Neil before the general election https://t.co/cxnk4bMP2T pic.twitter.com/u1kYheea7r — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 28, 2019 These two ice sculptures – which represent the emergency on planet earth – will take the place of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage tonight after they declined our invitation to attend a party leaders’ #ClimateDebate Tune in at 7pm on 4 and here on Twitter: https://t.co/GXl7XiFbgA pic.twitter.com/niPE5MLdGV — Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) November 28,…

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Your PB easy access guide to who is standing where

Your PB easy access guide to who is standing where

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Make sure you are not in the dark Once again thanks to Andy JS for putting together a spreadsheet to help guide us through the election a fortnight on Thursday. This is remarkably easy to use and search and I’ve found it to be very helpful. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

So after the MRP polls Johnson’s GE2019 gamble looks as though it will pay off

So after the MRP polls Johnson’s GE2019 gamble looks as though it will pay off

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Our ?@Adamstoon1? ?@EveningStandard? on the latest polls pic.twitter.com/kVrfwrg7x9 — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) November 28, 2019 After the YouGov MRP analysis the Tories now rated a 70% chance to secure an overall majority. This is the @betdatapolitics trend chart of the Betfair market pic.twitter.com/P6AZlgsUeV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2019 And more constituency polls are on the way This weekend in The Observer there will be a constituency poll bonanza from @DeltapollUK @PeterKellner1 — Martin Boon (@martinboon) November 28, 2019

The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t become PM

The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t become PM

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They can safely consider an anti-Brexit party Most of the focus on the two MRP sets of projections that we got last night is that in certain key seats tactical voting has the potential to impede the pro-Brexit Tories. Certainly in the bellwether seat of Bedford where I live both YouGov and the Best for Britain suggest that the Tories are just one percent ahead and it won’t take much to have an impact. But there is another group that…

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And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

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From the Times – The first YouGov MRP projectionhttps://t.co/RycenPP2qB pic.twitter.com/X3no4gBfAO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2019 This’ll form the basis for tactical voting Just published in the Time the first YouGov MRP projection which should calm the nerves at CCHQ. This will be dissected by opposition parties and used to press the case for tactical voting in specific seats. Let’s see how the betting markets respond. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

It looks as though Big Bold Boris could skip the Andrew Neil interview

It looks as though Big Bold Boris could skip the Andrew Neil interview

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Tory source says better take the hit for ?than take the risk of @afneil. Happy Days! https://t.co/Xw7aWICrQp — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) November 27, 2019 If so could this be like TMay skipping the GE17 debates This hasn’t been confirmed yet but there appears to be a possibility that Johnson might not agree to do an Andrew Neil interview like the one that Nicola Sturgeon and Corbyn have already gone through. Adam Boulton’s Tweet sums this up – that the risk…

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The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ratings for Swinson and the latest voting numbers

The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ratings for Swinson and the latest voting numbers

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Deltapoll of parents of school age children finds LAB with 14% lead amongst mums but the Tories 7% ahead amongst dads pic.twitter.com/RNWaMqK0ii — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2019 Jo Swinson sees big drop in her Ipsos-MORI favourability ratings pic.twitter.com/fLVMKxfSaT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2019 Summary of the latest voting intention polls from Wikipedia pic.twitter.com/pVmQB7LHRT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2019