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Category: General Election

The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

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The Saturday rolling poll thread Survation/MoS testing voting intentions with different LAB leaders. Cooper comes off worse – Johnson & Umuna best pic.twitter.com/sfh9m8VNWI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 YouGov/S Times poll has only 34% of LAB voters thinking Ed Miliband is up to the job as party leader — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 Other side of coin is that less than 6 months from GE15 two recent polls, Opinium and Survation have the Tories down in…

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It’s being reported that Salmond will try to make his come-back taking on Danny Alexander in Inverness

It’s being reported that Salmond will try to make his come-back taking on Danny Alexander in Inverness

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Interesting. Salmond said to be planning bid to stand in Danny Alexander's seat at GE15 http://t.co/B5ei68uLG5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 SNP 4/9 favoutite to oust Alexander in Inverness Ladbrokes http://t.co/OKFhPuoEOc latest odds on Inverness where it might be Salmond vs Alexander 4/9 SNP 2/1 LD 10/1 LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 How the seat voted at GE10 How Inverness voted at GE10 pic.twitter.com/M1ZqVu6PTB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 The extraordinary Inverness result from GE1992…

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Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

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UKIP now within just 3% of the Tories Although Survation has become a major part of the UK polling scene since GE10 its standard Westminster voting surveys are only a small part of its output. Today, however, there’s a new poll for the Daily Mirror which could provide some relief for the Ed Miliband camp under siege after a day of leadership speculation. The 4% LAB margin is the biggest in any poll since YouGov recorded a 7% lead nearly…

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The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

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Applying the US model to GE2015 Midterm day in the US is a good reminder of how different the general election narrative works out in the US compared with the UK. For there, as we all followed closely just two years ago, everything is focused on the so called swing States – the ones that will decide the election. The national polling shares were almost irrelevant – it was the data coming from the select group that was the main…

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It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

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This is just one poll but look what happened in YouGov's Scotland survey when Jim Murphy named as Scots LAB leader pic.twitter.com/wunVxK1mdr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2014 Unfortunately YouGov didn’t test out other possible contenders apart from Gordon Brown. The issue for Murphy is that he played such a high profile and sometimes controversial role in the NO IndyRef campaign. Maybe he’s a victim of the apparent mood-shift north of the border to the indpendence question. My view…

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Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

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When pressed on constituency question just 10% switch to red Today’s YouGov of CON 31, LAB 34, LD 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7 highlights the need to analyse what is happening to the GRN vote and what might happen in the key battlegrounds that will decide GE15. As ever the main source of published data is from Lord Ashcroft. The aggregation of a series of constituency polls means that sub-samples can be large enough to draw conclusions with a reasonable…

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Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

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You could see this as an attack line? “You voted NO – now tell him you mean it”? It’s been reported widely that the outgoing SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, Alex Salmond, is thinking about seeking a Westminster seat to fight at GE15. This would mean a return to the Commons. The one he’s said to have his eye is Gordon in Aberdeenshire where the sitting Lib Dem MP, Malcolm Bruce, is standing down. Generally the Lib Dems are…

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After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

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Now a 1% margin is something for the red team to cheer For whatever reason things have not been going well for LAB in the polls over the past week. Only the Populus online poll on Monday showed a lead while Opinium, Ashcroft, ComRes and three successive YouGovs had LAB and CON level-pegging. Of course edging up to a 1% lead, as today, is statistically irrelevant – but this is not about statistics but party morale and pressure, perhaps, on…

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