LAB 34%= CON 30%-1 UKIP 19%= LD 8%+1 GRN 3%-1 So only very slight movement well within the margin of error in voting intentions. The findings from the poll that I’ve highlighted in the chart are on perceptions of Dave which I think get to the heart of the challenges for both leaders. People can’t imagine Ed at Number 10 while Dave is not seen as someone who stand up for working people. Also the perception is that a CON…
Those who “bought” CON on Monday are into profit already It had been a long time coming but the opening of GE15 commons seats spread betting market from Sporting Index was a big moment in the betting build up to next May. To me it is the finest form of political betting because you “trade” commons seats as if they were stocks and shares and the more you are right the more you win. Alas the more you are wrong…
pic.twitter.com/Ddrv9Y1o56 — PolPics (@PolPics) November 14, 2014 Have seats that were in LAB’s grasp now fallen away There’s no doubt that this has been a dramatic polling week with apparently a move from LAB that is changing the long established view that the red team was heading for victory. But these are national polls of 1,000 sample sizes for phone surveys and up to 2,000 for online ones. What we need to see before jumping to conclusions is whether the…
The leader renews his vows with the party & role as underdog The grassroots response to Ed Miliband’s recent leadership uncertainties showed more enthusiasm for his leadership than at any other time – including at the point of his election. While certain MPs were wobbling, the party’s foot soldiers and supporters were bashing out 60,000 tweets of support. Yes, Labour folk are suckers for an underdog, but this felt different. There were reasons why they backed him. The stance on…
Given huge uncertainty the "any other government/coalition" option seems the value bet on this new Betfair market pic.twitter.com/u36aucSQPx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own. To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There…
LAB chances of overall majority at GE2015 fall to new low, a 23.2% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/CbSO0PuBgM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Tory chances of an overall majority at GE2015 fall to a new low, a 14.3% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/v2PkIlFbd1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON…
At last. The GE15 Commons seats spread betting opens with this from SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk pic.twitter.com/jgmIA7W0FX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads LAB 294 seats CON 276 LD 28 UKIP 9 SNP 21 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Now the betting can get really serious For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you…
Essex Uni psephologist Prof Paul Whiteley argues that EdM not far behind DC on likeability http://t.co/xch2fvo90D pic.twitter.com/1iXsXb3d82 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014 On this measure Ed is not far behind One of the issues that the current Ed Miliband issue has brought out is what are the best form of leader ratings. Prof Paul Whiteley, of University of Essex who ran BPIX, posted an interesting article last night suggesting that some of the standard measures like “best leader” might…