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Category: General Election

The NT should repeat “This House” – a taste of what happens when you have a minority government

The NT should repeat “This House” – a taste of what happens when you have a minority government

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This should be screened again before May 7th Suddenly people are talking about a possible minority government after the general election because of the way the maths appear at the moment. With the polls looking so tight with UKIP and the SNP expected to have much bigger contingents at Westminster it’s quite likely that neither LAB or CON will secure a majority and a future coalition very difficult to achieve. Last year I wrote enthusiastically about James Graham’s “This House”…

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Latest betting prices – GE2015 and possible UKIP defections

Latest betting prices – GE2015 and possible UKIP defections

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Only change on Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR GE spreads. LDs up one seat pic.twitter.com/1P3z6gIpFO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2014 William Hill betting http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz UKIP 5/1 to be part of a coalition – 18 months ago they were 33/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2014 William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz now make CON 4/6 to win back Rochester. Yesterday morning they were 2/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2014

David Herdson on Saturday: We might have passed peak UKIP?

David Herdson on Saturday: We might have passed peak UKIP?

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pic.twitter.com/r9B3dMy5oD — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2014 Is the message from Rochester that 2015 will be ‘close but no cigar’ for Team Farage? Politics can be a contradictory old business. In many ways, UKIP has been the Party of the Year for the second year running. The SNP might dispute that but the reality is that the SNP lost their big vote in September while UKIP won theirs in May, becoming only the third party since WWI to win a…

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CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

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Tories helped by UKIP/Farage’s poor expectation management Mood on spread markets is that Rochester good for CON now just 3 seats behind. Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR pic.twitter.com/9v0QsDcpF1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014 This morning’s movement means that the CON price has advanced by 7 seats since SPIN opened its market 11 days ago. The money’s now going on CON to retake the seat next May William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz now make CON odds on 5/6 favourite to win Rochester back…

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New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

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New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 The split Survation/Unite Stockton S poll CON 39% (0), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Survation Unite Stockton S poll NOT past voted weighted. 48. 2% of sample were 2010 CON voters when actual figure was 38.9% —…

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Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

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What we need now are Scottish constituency polls The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share. It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that…

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For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

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Ashcroft becomes the 4th pollster in a row to have LAB ahead All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB. The shares vary considerably across the firms no more so than today. Just look at the chart to see the very real differences between Ashcroft and Populus – the latter having a CON+LAB…

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How voting patterns can be very different depending on the tactical situation in each constituency

How voting patterns can be very different depending on the tactical situation in each constituency

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What will this mean with the UKIP surge next May? The chart above seeks to look at the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005 and in doing so gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next May. The LAB vote showed the largest range with, interestingly, the biggest drop-off in support in those seats where it didn’t matter – those…

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