Browsed by
Category: General Election

LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

Comments 0 Comment

But Sturgeon’s party would be one short on seats Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month. What’s great about this is that you have a very large sample which…

Read More Read More

If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

Comments 0 Comment

Martin Baxter, the ex-Cambridge University mathematiciion who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades, has produced the above map that sets out the various outcomes and links them, based on party shares, to what could happen. I reproduce it above. In a technical note Martin writes:- ” Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP are…

Read More Read More

My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

Comments 0 Comment

The constant flow of GB-wide surveys is giving a distorted picture of what is going on Just about every day at the moment I find myself having to Tweet or write on PB that general elections are not decided by national party vote shares but by first past the post elections in 650 separate constituencies. This has never been the case more so than in what has for decades been regarded as Labour’s most important bastion – Scotland where 59…

Read More Read More

The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

Comments 0 Comment

The data in the chart above is from the aggregate 12k sample from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft CON held LAB facing marginals to be published. I’ve highlighted four key groups who could influence the election in the most important seats of all – CON defences against LAB. The other reason I’ve chosen this polling is the overall sample size which which means that we can look at subsets with greater confidence. Those polled were asked to rate ED…

Read More Read More

PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

Comments 0 Comment

The Con-Lab gap drops to just 1% – the closest it’s been since Jan 2012 Convention says that as an election approaches, the public will put aside their flirtation with protest parties and return to the serious business of choosing a government for the country. Well, convention be damned. Five months today will be the last day of campaigning before the General Election yet far from returning to the traditional Westminster parties, voters continue to leave them in ever greater…

Read More Read More

On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

Comments 0 Comment

Latest Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR see LAB -1 CON +1. Just 4 MP gap now pic.twitter.com/arQHjH3eUU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2014 For the first time there’s overlap in the Commons seat spread betting The Tories have made more progress on the SportingIndex Commos seat spread markets and the buy level is 285 MPs. Given the polling showing number of CON held seats with majorities up to 7.8% seeing LAB leads, the threat from UKIP, and…

Read More Read More

The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored

The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored

Comments 0 Comment

How the Sun is treating Osborne's AS pic.twitter.com/fFT6XjFA3e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Mirror front page on AS pic.twitter.com/eao43yavp1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Mail'sfront page on AS pic.twitter.com/SM3kMqAOvT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 FT front page on AS pic.twitter.com/i68pNH8r9c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 @Telegraph on the AS pic.twitter.com/qYLF1okpHM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Times front page on AS pic.twitter.com/Y3pwUY3G9u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Guardian front…

Read More Read More

If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

Comments 0 Comment

That won’t harm his leadership ambitions The autumn statement was always going to be a major event on the road to May 7th and George Osborne didn’t disappoint. So many different ideas and measures all designed to make it harder for Labour in the economic debate in the run up to the election and to block out the kippers. Although they were well-trailed the stamp duty changes look right for that “middle” audience which the Tories have to bring back…

Read More Read More