Browsed by
Category: General Election

LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

Comments 0 Comment

CON/LAB/LD all up – UKIP/GREEN down The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up. It should emphasised that the long-standing ComRes series of phone polls for the Independent is completely separate from the monthly online surveys from the Indy on Sunday. Tonight’s poll also found that those sampled…

Read More Read More

Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

Comments 0 Comment

pic.twitter.com/Drgab0QAIL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 14, 2014 What’s the December Record/Survation poll going to show? There’s little doubt that the biggest uncertainty about next May’s general election is what’s going to happen in the 41 seats that Labour currently holds in Scotland. If recent polling turns out to be right they could be left with barely half a dozen of them – an outcome that could have a catastrophic impact on the party’s hope to return to power. It…

Read More Read More

The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

Comments 0 Comment

FT (£) http://t.co/z0pxB8dVw1 reporting that UKIP at war over Neil Hamilton's pursuit of a seat. pic.twitter.com/iGTleyplR3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2014 Whatever happens over Hamilton it will be wrong The former Conservative MP for Tatton who lost out to Martin Bell in 1997 has been much in the news of late as he has tried to be selected for a winnable seat for UKIP at GE15. The latest development, according to a report on the FT’s front page,…

Read More Read More

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

Comments 0 Comment

A case methinks of hearts over heads As a general rule political betting prices and polling tend to run in parallel particularly in the constituencies. So when earlier this month Lord Ashcroft published his latest round there was a rush of activity when apparently obvious bargain appeared. One such one was Nigel Farage’s Thanet South where following the numbers being available the UKIP price of 2/5 eased to 5/6. An earlier Ashcroft poll had had Farage with a 3% lead….

Read More Read More

Why UKIP is set to damage Tories a lot more than LAB at GE2015

Why UKIP is set to damage Tories a lot more than LAB at GE2015

Comments 0 Comment

pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 LAB lost much of its traditional support long before the UKIP surge Today I’m off to London for a big event in Westminster to promote the GE2015 British Election Study – a huge academic imitative involving the universities of Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham that in the coming months will become an essential resource to all who follow politics closely. The rise and rise of UKIP is going to be a big focus and…

Read More Read More

UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 UKIP the main mover in this week's @LordAshcroft phone poll LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 pic.twitter.com/bRz4vZA8YR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 How the alternative vote would have impacted on voting How AV might have impacted on election. Interesting data from @LordAshcroft pic.twitter.com/y7JphKsn77 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Tories now level-pegging in England The England only-figures in today's @LordAshcroft poll see LAB &…

Read More Read More