The voting group that looks set to give Johnson his majority – GE2017 LAB leavers
Deltapoll Nov 30 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
GE2019 betting update: Punters slightly less certain about a CON majority
CON majority chances on Betfair down from 72% last week to 65% On the spreads CON & LDs down 6 since last week: LAB up 12+ SportingIndex
Labour’s Brexit Divisions
Political parties have always been coalitions in themselves. They are big tents and broad churches that try to keep everyone singing from more or less the same hymn sheet, or at least not fighting in the aisles. But sometimes you can see the stretch and the strain in the canvas as it tries to hold it all together. As James Maxton quipped during Labour party splits in the 1930s, “if you can’t ride two horses at once then you’ve no…
Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?
Picture: The gateway to paradise Sheffield Hallam seems like a nailed on gain for the Liberal Democrats on the 12th of December, they have an energetic candidate in Laura Gordon, and have been working hard in the constituency they held between 1997 and 2017 but will it be a gain? It seems like a bold call to say Labour might hold this wonderful constituency considering the Lib Dems are nationally polling double what they polled in 2017 with Labour polling…
History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected
The modern era of big, open, political betting began in 1963 when Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes offered odds on the Conservative leadership contest for the ordinary punter. It was a dismal start as the 5/4 favourite Rab Butler was beaten by the 16/1 shot Alec Douglas-Home. In offering the market Pollard tapped into a long, often secret, history of political betting in Britain. In the 1920s, people on the stock exchange would bet on ‘majorities’ – what we now call…
Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat
Esher & Walton, constituency voting intention: CON: 46% (-13)LDEM: 41% (+24)LAB: 9% (-11) via @DeltapollUK, 21 – 26 Nov — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention: LAB: 46% (+5)CON: 38% (-)LDEM: 11% (-6)BREX: 2% (+2) via @DeltapollUK, 22 – 27 NovChgs. w/ GE2017 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority…
Time to Think the Unthinkable?
“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce” Karl Marx A guest slot from Stodge Like every other election, the June 2017 General Election had generated its fair share of myths and legends. One is that all the polls showed a big Conservative majority until the very end – well, some certainly did but not all. The YouGov from May 24-25 showed a Conservative lead of just 5 points while Opinium at the same time showed a ten point…
Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?
This should have been their breakthrough chance Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will…