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Category: General Election

Lunchtime round-up with Marf on the pensioners bonds and the coalition struggling in the “blame for the cuts” tracker

Lunchtime round-up with Marf on the pensioners bonds and the coalition struggling in the “blame for the cuts” tracker

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Politicalbetting's Marf on Osborne's new pensioner bonds pic.twitter.com/low9iePcEt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2015 Pensioners, as we all know, are most likely to be on the electoral register and most likely to vote. They are also the segment of the population most likely to have savings on which, in the era of ultra low interest rates, they are receiving a pittance. Also the polling suggests that they are more likely to be CON supporters than other age segments. This…

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Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

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@LordAshcroft polling from Thanet S where Al Murray plans to stand at GE15 He could have huge impact pic.twitter.com/FBmz8yhp7Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 What’ll this do the the UKIP leader’s bid to become an MP? Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon. Given his popularity and the fact that he’s chosen Thanet South it does look…

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New Ashcroft 20k sample mega-poll highlights the massive challenge facing the Tories on the NHS

New Ashcroft 20k sample mega-poll highlights the massive challenge facing the Tories on the NHS

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Politicalbetting's Marf on the debate over the NHS pic.twitter.com/OJg40M2kU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 LAB and EdM seen to be more concerned How important do you think the NHS is to the parties and leaders? pic.twitter.com/BCwUh9zN3g — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 14, 2015 Burnham’s comments resonating much more than Hunt’s How Andy Burnham comments on NHS resonating far more with voters than those of Health Sec Hunt @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/VgybOGbW85 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 Where…

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After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

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Tories up 4 & back at the high point on SportingIndex commons seat market. Now just 2 behind LAB pic.twitter.com/Y9ULu3648A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 LAB majority on the Betfair exchange slumps to lowest level yet based on last trades. LAB 11.9% chance. CON 16.7% chance. NOM 71.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 As a general rule CON backers most influenced by good news After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5%…

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If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

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Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking. The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%. Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period –…

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Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

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A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

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Ex-Cameron aide: Tories will lose election | Public Affairs News http://t.co/SKeYQvS2B7. See pic.twitter.com/ReAVs6BtZN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The grassroots collapse that threatens the Tories In the article David Cameron’s former chief of Staff, Alex Deane, makes this observation and predictions about the general election: “”The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left. This becomes stronger as the…

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