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Category: General Election

Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom

Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom

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Farage has net -51% approval rating in Opinium 1st time voters poll – even worse than Clegg on -44 http://t.co/OUBxBC8ARG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Amongst 1st voters LAB leads by 15% according to Opinium. GRN on 19% UKIP 3% pic.twitter.com/5qhZTsekae — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 The 15% LAB lead amongst 1st time voters from Opinium compares with LAB & CON level pegging with this age group at GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015…

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Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

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Telegraph April 21 2006 http://t.co/ikt49rTSv7 pic.twitter.com/XCnmAIFVJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Now the Tory hope is vote Green get blue The pictures still remain a defining moment of his leadership: surrounded by a pack of huskies and against an Arctic backdrop, David Cameron pushing his vote-Blue-go-green message. It seems a long time ago and it is, almost nine years as the clock ticks and an era politically – before the Credit Crunch changed the entire political landscape. That…

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Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

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The political and legal environment make it very difficult Nearly a year ago the former LD cabinet minister, Chris Huhne, wrote an excellent piece in the Guardian on how the Fixed Term Parliament Act would make it difficult for a second general election shortly after an indecisive outcome – as looks highly likely in May. ” The Fixed-term Parliaments Act means that the prime minister can no longer call an election at a time of his choosing. … Elections are…

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The mood of Tory optimism shows itself on the betting markets

The mood of Tory optimism shows itself on the betting markets

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On the Betfair exchange CON now clear favourites to win most seats With so any polls this week showing CON and LAB level-pegging or the blues ahead it’s inevitable that this was going to show on the betting markets. The money’s been going on them winning most seats and, as can be seen, there’s now quite a difference with the Labour price. In betting terms the last time CON was at these level was in the aftermath of Cameron’s EU…

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Remember 2005 when LAB and CON were level pegging on votes in England but LAB won 92 more seats

Remember 2005 when LAB and CON were level pegging on votes in England but LAB won 92 more seats

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From the Commons Research paper on GE2005 pic.twitter.com/8loUiNhvCe — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2015 There’s little to suggest that such a distortion won’t happen again The blue team has understandably found great cheer and encouragement in the latest polling from a range of firms. The race is undoubtedly getting closer in terms of votes but it’s seats that matter. One of the reasons why I’ve been highlighting England is because of what happened in the 529 seats being fought there…

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A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter

A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter

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Many ex-yellows are now going green Over the last two years we’ve been keeping a close eye on the group of swing voters who could have a big impact on the May 7th outcome – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but have now switched to Labour. In my latest calculation, for January, the number has dropped to a low point. This is not the sort of trend that you can easily discern from a single poll which is…

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New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?

New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?

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Th Ashcroft Hallam poll pic.twitter.com/hupZ9psvka — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The Ashcroft Kingston poll pic.twitter.com/CyxJ6idt75 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The Ashcroft Loughborough poll pic.twitter.com/SHTXo7vpIx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 Betfair Sportsbook’s ever expanding range of new markets has got an interesting one up. How many of the current cabinet will lose their seats at the general election? 0 9/2 1 3/1 2 2/1 3 4/1 4 6/1 5 10/1 6 20/ 7 40/1…

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Survation test a constituency specific question in its new Mirror poll and get a slightly different outcome

Survation test a constituency specific question in its new Mirror poll and get a slightly different outcome

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Wikimedia An unusual feature of the new Survation poll for the Daily Mirror is that, partly at my suggestion, it used the two stage voting question similar to that which we see in the Ashcroft marginals polling. After the standard one was put the sample was asked to think specifically about the candidates likely to be standing in their seats and which one would they choose. The options were not the parties but were in the format of “the XYZ…

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