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Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

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Contrast that with the LD-held seats One of the great hopes of the Ashcroft Scottish polling was that it might flag up whether there’d be tactical voting or whether incumbent MPs would get a bonus. Lord A asks two voting questions. The first is a standard one while the latter asked respondents to think specifically about the seat and the candidates who might stand. I wondered whether we’d see an pro-Union tactical voting or whether long-standing LAB MPs would see…

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Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling

Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling

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The only conclusion: Labour is set to get hammered The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling that's just been published is only the first round and covers mainly areas where YES did well in IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/j9bZrVFf55 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 pic.twitter.com/AorImxfNSy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/e0G7bWI41O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/StconhCurk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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Let’s hope that the seats chosen for the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling are varied enough to draw broad conclusions

Let’s hope that the seats chosen for the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling are varied enough to draw broad conclusions

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I'm hoping Lord Ashcroft has chosen a broad selection of Scottish seats so we'll be able to draw broad conclusions pic.twitter.com/PBlQWf90WD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2015 UPDATE – the Ashcroft Scottish polling published early The Ashcroft Scottish polling has been published and show a staggering 25.4% LAB to SNP swing http://t.co/EBa7AX8oK5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 t At 11am Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish polls are due to be published and, hopefully, they’ll give us a clearer idea…

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The best betting strategy for tomorrow is do nothing till you’ve seen the numbers

The best betting strategy for tomorrow is do nothing till you’ve seen the numbers

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Totally between ourselves @LordAshcroft should I BUY or SELL SNP seats on the SportingIndex http://t.co/8brmIVQzQn pic.twitter.com/BP0lAU6Cd8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2015 At 11am tomorrow morning Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish single seat polls will be published and will get huge media attention. It is going to be an intensive period for political punters both on the constituency markets and the overall outcome ones. The best preparation is to look over your current commitments and have a plan of action depending…

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Latest YouGov makes it 8 consecutive polls without a CON lead but there’s more dire news for LAB from Scotland

Latest YouGov makes it 8 consecutive polls without a CON lead but there’s more dire news for LAB from Scotland

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Curtice in the Indy: GE15 "more about what kind of hung parliament we acquire rather than who can win a majority" pic.twitter.com/QSW8BK6QA5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2015 YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) February 2, 2015 New YouGov Scotland poll has SNP 48 to LAB's 27% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 @MSmithsonPB mmmmm — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 2, 2015…

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The Liberals had held Montgomeryshire for all but 4 of the last 120 years – until Lembit sought re-election

The Liberals had held Montgomeryshire for all but 4 of the last 120 years – until Lembit sought re-election

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It’s 5/2 that they can re-take the seat At GE10 the incumbent MP who did worse than his party in any of the 650 seats was Lembit Opik in what for over a century had been a Liberal stronghold. At one stage during the last campaign you could have got 8/1 on the Tories taking the seat because it was seen as so much of a certainty. For a whole series of reasons Lembit’s antics in the years beforehand didn’t…

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Labour ruling out ‘negative’ election campaign posters indicates an underlying problem for Labour

Labour ruling out ‘negative’ election campaign posters indicates an underlying problem for Labour

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A Tory election poster that was released earlier on this week. pic.twitter.com/WRXQx8YvBQ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 31, 2015 The Observer is reporting that Labour has scrapped all plans to run billboard posters of David Cameron during the general election campaign in what it says it is a deliberate attempt to avoid “negative personalised adverts” and raise the tone of debate. But the most interesting excerpt from the article is this bit The Observer understands that Labour’s effort to occupy…

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The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

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The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September. Wiki chart http://t.co/XvWSExGrQ6 pic.twitter.com/PITg2ELZgm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 LAB take 3% lead in tonight's YouGov CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Tonight's LAB YouGov share of 35% is highest of the year so far — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015