Anybody thinking of betting on the Greens ought to listen first to this interview with the party leader
listen to ‘Incredibly Awkward Interview With Green Party Leader Natalie Bennett’ on audioBoom
Betting that Farage won’t do it in Thanet South is starting to look like a good proposition
The betting from Thanet South where Nigel Farage is hoping to become an MP pic.twitter.com/AyGbv138N9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 The 3 @LordAshcroft polls in Thanet South. LAB is competitive as well as CON & UKIP pic.twitter.com/EbWKFGNnYx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 If the edge is coming off the purples Farage might fail I’ve just caught up with the excellent BBC2 programme that was screened on Sunday night – “Meet the Ukippers” which focuses on Thanet…
Another phone pollster, ComRes, has UKIP declining. CON lead up from 1 to 2%
The decline of UKIP from another pollster – ComRes phone poll for Mail CON 34 (+3) LAB 32 (+2) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 13 (-4) GRN 6 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll CON 36 LAB 32 LD 7 UKIP 14 GRN 9 A CON to LAB swing of 3.4% since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 So the second phone poll of the day is out and, like Lord Ashcroft this afternoon, shows UKIP on the decline. But unlike Ashcroft…
Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKIP and the Tories winning most seats
Purples drop 5 while LAB edges close to overall majority The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December. For UKIP the fall is in line with the trend if not the scale recorded by other pollsters. It does seem…
The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with Populus + Marf
After the Oscars and cash for access Marf gives her take pic.twitter.com/zQwWGcTx67 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 CON & LAB level-pegging in latest Populus Lab 32 (-), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (-), UKIP 15 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each – today's poll 32% for both — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 There are more LAB…
Updated: Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead – LAB retains its slender YouGov lead
Trend chart from Opinium which has just recorded its first ever CON lead in its Observer polling series pic.twitter.com/o4q9cS3RlB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Opinium shares Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 The poll represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England Opinium ENGLAND only split CON 36 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 16 GRN 7 That compares with CON 11.4% lead in England at GE10 so a 4.1% CON to LAB…
Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair
CON to win most seats moves to an even stronger favourite on Betfair. Now a 62% chance pic.twitter.com/Qj3KJgc8ue — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 One poll with a CON lead in the past 17 pic.twitter.com/jmyBnGqEnS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Am I missing something here? Discuss On this exact day before GE2010 the money was going on a substantial CON majority in spite of the polls pic.twitter.com/Rt6VoJy5wc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Mike Smithson For…
David Herdson on Tactical voting: “the voters’ blind man’s bluff”
Why I think tactical voting will be down this year Once upon a time it was easy. There were only three parties, you had a rough idea of how the local land lay and if your preferred party stood no chance while your second preference did, then you could lend them your vote in the hope of keeping out the worst option. Oh for such simple times. Before looking forward, a quick look back. The phenomenon of widespread tactical voting…