The data’s clear: The Tories are retaining more of their GE2017 remainers than LAB is with its GE2017 leavers
?
PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections
I’ve written before about Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings difficulties, and they did not improve in the following months. In September and October of 2019, he racked up satisfaction ratings of -60, the lowest any Leader of the Opposition has rated since Ipsos-Mori started polling it in 1977 (snatching the record from Michael Foot). In October that came from satisfied a rating of 15%, the third lowest rating on record (narrowly losing out to William Hague in June of 1997 and…
NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Election preview / will there be a hung parliament?
On the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask ‘who has had a good or bad campaign?’ and crucially ‘Will there be a hung parliament?’ Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?
Jeremy Corbyn came to the Labour leadership contest as an outsider and was elected as a revolution, a rejection of Blairite centrism and a return to socialism. It was a choice to try to find and rally latent support on the left as a path to victory rather than trying to occupy the centre-ground and the tactics of triangulation. It’s a decision that the Democratic party is wrestling with in their search for a nominee in an election that feels…
A new betting strategy worth pursuing?
Fascinating analysis by The Sunday Times. Activists directed to help Corbynistas rather than target winnable seats.https://t.co/HimIjC8mNF pic.twitter.com/jnxIgH4Aau — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 7, 2019 Don’t back Corbyn critics in seats they are expected to hold & back the Corbyn supporters in the seats they are narrowly expected to lose? There’s a fascinating story in today’s Sunday Times Momentum, the grassroots campaign group that backs Jeremy Corbyn, proposes on its online campaign map that canvassers travel to areas whose candidates are devoted…
After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON majority remains the strong betting favourite
Betdata.io of movement on Betfair Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?
? At a pinch this might impact on Johnson’s majority hopes Two and a half years ago the Tory star was then Scottish leader Ruth Davidson who saw her party north of the border make 12 gains to add to their previous single seat in Scotland. She was widely hailed as the future of the party and, even though not an MP, rose sharpy in the next Westminster leader betting. There was little doubt that it was Davidson who saved…
YouGov snap poll: Johnson wins 52-48
YouGov / Sky News snap poll on the TV debate Leaving aside your own party preference, who do you think performed best overall in tonight’s debate? Boris Johnson: 52%Jeremy Corbyn: 48% — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) December 6, 2019 Given the CON voting poll lead that’s not that good for the PM The CON majority betting has barely moved – still a 71% chance. I thought Nick Robinson did well and it was good to see the former BBC Political…