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Category: General Election

How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

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One of the great things about tonight’s ComRes/ITV marginals poll is that it gave us data that we could compare with national polling to see different patterns. The battleground polling was in the 50 CON seats that are most vulnerable to LAB and as the chart shows the biggest group of change voters since GE10, the LD supporters, have a very different profile of current support compared with the applicable comparative national poll. Far fewer of the LDs are sticking…

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ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

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Latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has studied the fifty most marginal CON-held seats where LAB were second at the last election, and results show that LAB leads CON by three points across these seats. LAB currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with CON on 37%. This represents a swing of 3.5 points from the CON to LAB, and will boost Ed Miliband and his “happy warriors” on the LAB campaign team as they enter the…

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Ipsos-MORI Scotland phone poll has SNP a staggering 34% ahead

Ipsos-MORI Scotland phone poll has SNP a staggering 34% ahead

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How STV is reporting its sensation @IpsosMORI Scottish phone poll pic.twitter.com/WfTCvlEf7z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2015 More evidence total victory for SNP in Scotland. Our latest poll for @STV News – SNP 54% (+2), Lab 20 (-4), Cons 17% (+5), LD 5% (+1)! — Ben Page (@benatipsos) April 29, 2015 This could be down to “shy unionists” With the ongoing debate about phone polls versus online ones there’s a new Ipsos Scotland survey for STV which has extraordinary…

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My podcast with Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters + latest YouGov has LAB back in the lead

My podcast with Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters + latest YouGov has LAB back in the lead

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Yesterday I recorded a podcast with the excellent Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley), the professional pollster who runs the Polling Matters website. We covered a lot of issues that are very familiar to PB regulars including comparing betting markets to opinion polls, Lord Ashcroft and regional polling, Scotland and the future of the Liberal Democrats after the election. Also Keiran asked about how PB was set up in the first place more than eleven years ago Meanwhile overnight we have had the…

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If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test

If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test

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Ashcroft polling Nuneaton pic.twitter.com/c91MlK6Rsd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015 A look forward to election night The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering. Looking at the Press Association expected declaration timings we are not going to get much on these seats before 1am when the Nuneaton result is scheduled….

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What we need is for individual pollsters to produce results that are completely out of character

What we need is for individual pollsters to produce results that are completely out of character

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A Populus CON lead perhaps would speak volumes Mark Pack makes an excellent point that if you look at movements pollster by pollster then there has actually been very little volatility. This is one of the basic rules of polling analysis – you shouldn’t compare one firm’s poll with another and then deduce that there has been a trend. In the run up to this election Monday and Friday morning’s, as we saw again yesterday, have generally brought reassuring news…

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The big unknown – the large number of polling respondents saying they don’t know

The big unknown – the large number of polling respondents saying they don’t know

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New @Survation Record  Scotland pollSNP 51 (+4) Lab 26 (nc)   Con 14% (-2) LD 5% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 CON edges to 1% lead in latest YouGov poll for the Sun CON 35 (+2) LAB 34 (=) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) GRN 5 (=) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015

CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new seat polls UKIP continues to struggle

CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new seat polls UKIP continues to struggle

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CON 6% ahead in latest @LordAshcroft national pic.twitter.com/CJnUmFY15G — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national pollCON 36+2LAB 30=LD 9-1UKIP 11-2GN 7+3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcroft Gt Yarmouth CON hold pic.twitter.com/l69frq8cPG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcroft Cannock Chase LAB gain pic.twitter.com/tpWLHK4csj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcrfot Castle point CON hold pic.twitter.com/6Qt6Yk9dEK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcroft – Gt Grimsby LAB…

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