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Category: General Election

The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

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The 2010 YouGov poll two days before GE10 got the LAB CON margin almost spot on. A good precedent for GE15? pic.twitter.com/t7h1G64m3a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 It’s back to level-pegging in latest poll After a spate of 1% LAB or CON leads the latest YouGov Sun poll breaks the pattern – level peggingCON 33LAB 33 LD 10 UKIP 12GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2015 On Betfair CON most seats is an 82% chance CON…

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Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

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Are CON incumbents really going to get a bonus? In its latest poll for the Mail on Sunday Survation added a new dimension – a voting question based on the precise ballot paper that each of the 2100 people sampled will actually fill in on Thursday or have already done so with postal votes. This was an online poll and the replica ballot papers are generated for each participant by their post code. If there is going to be a…

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John Curtice on the exit poll

John Curtice on the exit poll

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John Curtice on the forthcoming exit poll http://t.co/887u4v1Yw3 pic.twitter.com/jjId8N7T5f — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 3, 2015 Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end. From the article John Curtice has said…

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Cameron and the post election narrative

Cameron and the post election narrative

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Finishing behind the Tories in seats and votes could force Ed Miliband to play the political equivalent of Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun. Last night, the Tory strategy for Friday morning emerged, David Cameron will declare victory on Friday if he has most votes and seats and cast a Labour led government as illegitimate, The Tories will say ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on.’ If necessary, dare the others to vote down a Conservative government. “We’ll…

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On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls

On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls

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First two polls of the night ComRes & Opinium have no change After a CON lead of 1% last week tonight's Opinium/Observer poll hasCON 35LAB 34LD 8UKIP 13GTN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2015 Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for IoS/S Mirror has with comparisons last Tuesday poll Con 33% -2 Lab 33% -2 LD 8% +1 UKIP 13% +2 GN 7% +1 Views of Ed & Dave from ComRes IoS/S Mirror poll pic.twitter.com/do2qGinzmN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May…

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Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet

Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet

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This pattern doesn’t look right As I’ve said so often what the 2010 LD voters do in the marginals could be absolutely critical in deciding the election. In processing yesterday’s round of CON-LAB marginals from Lord Ashcroft I came across the above apparent oddity in the Croydon Central survey. Its 2010 LD switcher total to the Tories is totally out of line with just about anything we have seen in his constituency polling. In October Lord Ashcroft found a split…

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The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

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A couple of surveys at least still to come Tonight we saw the last of Lord Ashcroft constituency polls which have added enormously to this election. All told his polling has covered nearly 250k separate phone interviews which is just colossal. There are some more polls to come tonight. I’m sort of expecting a new ComRes phone poll for the Mail and maybe one more as well as the usual YouGov. Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: LAB retains its slender 1% lead….

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