Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger. As can be seen the Lib Dems just have the edge of just one percent ahead The interesting figure is the 11% LAB share and my guess is that that would be squeezed very tightly in a general election in places where the Lib Dems would be the main challengers…
GE2017 LAB voters forgetting what they did could be causing distortion After the 1992 polling debacle when John Major’s Tories won an overall majority even though all but one of the pollsters had LAB ahead a big effort was launched by ICM to find out what had gone wrong and we’ve all heard about “shy Tories” less willing to take part in polls. The firm’s Nick Sparrow in conjunction with Prof John Curtice came up with what is known…
Betdata.io chart of movements on Betfair Exchange Will Boris be tempted? Last night’s ComRes poll suggesting that the Tories under Johnson could secure a 40 seat majority raises the question once again of whether the new leader would risk going to the country soon after taking over the leadership. The reasons are powerful. The need to get Brexit through by the end of October and, of course, a desire to underpin the perceived democratic legitimacy of his position. Johnson would…
Chart of Betfair price movements from Betdata.io The big betting move following Johnson’s thumping victory in the first round of the CON MP leadership voting has been renewed interest in the next general election taking place this year. This has now moved to favourite on Betfair. A challenge for a Boris-led CON party is going to be keeping the parliamentary grouping together because, if not, you could see him failing a government confidence motion at the first hurdle which, if…
From the Sunday papers that we have now got in the Observer reports that Tory MPs would block the prime minister if she sought to call a general election. This has been heavily hinted at since the Brexit votes were lost on Friday. Before the Fixed Term Parliament Act the choice of choosing a general election date was totally in the hands of the prime minister. The act changed that and now a election can only be called if two-thirds…
I am disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together for the Labour policies that inspired millions at the last election and saw us increase our vote by the largest share since 1945. — Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) February 18, 2019 Labour won people over on a programme for the many not the few – redistributing wealth and power, taking vital resources into public ownership, investing in every region and nation, and tackling climate change. — Jeremy…