Time to look ahead to 2022 No incumbent French president has won re-election since the terms were reduced from seven years to five. Granted, there are not many examples – two – on which to base what might appear to be if not a rule of thumb then certainly a trend. But nor is the Élysée exactly a secure base from which to a presidential campaign (compare here with the American presidency). So why is Emmanuel Macron such short odds…
How far do the Yellow Vest protests go? Emmanuel Macron was always an unlikely revolutionary. Graduate of the ENA, high-flying civil servant, investment banker with Rothschilds, and later Minister of Finance and the Economy: his was the model of an insider’s path to power. And yet En Marche was a revolution of sorts. Despite Macron’s own background, his election was in its own way a rejection of the status quo. His style, however, was never fitted to that role –…
Aux armes citoyens! or at least put on your yellow hi-vis. In the last month, 50 years after the explosion of 1968, the French are once again taking to the streets. Whereas Mai 68 was a cocktail of demands for a freer more open society, Decembre 18 is more a cry of anger about a stagnant standard of living. France is increasingly struggling to satisfy its citizen’s aspirations. In the post war world France progressed rapidly during Les Trente Glorieuses the…
What’s TMay’s strategy?
On the previous thread Chris from Paris gave his views on who Macron is going to choose as his first Prime Minister. Betffair has just got a market up. These are Chris’s views with the numbers being the Betfair price when he posted. Pascal Lamy 10.0 : ok price, a bit low: Lamy has a great international profile but pretty unlikely PM as he has never been either a MP or a minister – Le Drian 7.2 : the price…
New York Times graphic His victory was almost two to one In the immediate aftermath of the first round two weeks ago I wrote here that the final outcome was nearest thing to an absolute certainty you could have and I bet accordingly. There was no way I could see, during the final phase of the campaign that Le Pen could win given the sheer size of the opinion polls gap. The polls had been dead on for the first…
The powers of the French President France will shortly elect a new president, but what powers will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen have if they win? #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/W8EoSvQgMY — AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 7, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
MARINE LE PEN might be 24% behind in the polls but she's attracting 90% of the bets on the eve of the French Election – @LadPolitics — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2017 Final French polls published before last night's legal deadline before poll ban came in had Macron increasing his lead pic.twitter.com/orhvOkaetv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2017 The polls close at 1900 BST tomorrow when should get the next polls. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet