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Category: EU Referendum

Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over Cameron’s EU stance

Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over Cameron’s EU stance

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A sign of splits to come in the blue team? The political blogging pioneer and former chief of staff to IDS, Tim Montgomerie, announced overnight that he was quitting the party over Cameron’s stance on the EU. This clearly was a carefully timed announcement designed to have an impact. I’ve known Tim for a long time and have great respect for his journalistic and political skills. He founded ConservativeHome in the immediate aftermath of Tony Blair’s third LAB victory in…

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New Ipsos MORI phone EURef poll finds almost no change in REMAIN lead

New Ipsos MORI phone EURef poll finds almost no change in REMAIN lead

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Updated all the latest #EURef polling when actual question asked. The phone-online divide wider than ever pic.twitter.com/WO14EmOp4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 Ipsos MORI phone poll finds little change on last month when actual #EURef question asked. 18% REMAIN lead down 1 pic.twitter.com/tbXP0WO9vf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 @IpsosMORI #EURef poll. Cameron and Boris will be the key influencers pic.twitter.com/oZNwyJU1pg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 @IpsosMORI finds most people thinking that #EURef REMAIN will…

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EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

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Embed from Getty Images Myth 1: Cameron’s deal has been unexpectedly badly received Answer: NO Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe.  69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do.  Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident. How in fact has the outline deal gone down?  Well, almost exactly in line with this.  YouGov polled…

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EU Referendum punters unmoved by by drop in REMAIN phone poll position

EU Referendum punters unmoved by by drop in REMAIN phone poll position

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With all eyes this week on the final stage of the EU talks there has been very little movement on the referendum outcome betting in spite of the movements away from REMAIN in the latest online and phone polls. So much depends on what comes out of this week and how Cameron puts it over. I always think that the PM is at his best when his back is to the wall and his worst then things are going well….

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Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

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At the height of the Second World War, Abraham Maslow unveiled an important new theory of psychology.  Synthesising physical and higher needs, he arranged the drivers of human behaviour in the form of a pyramid.  At the bottom, he placed physiological needs – the physical impulses that drive every animal.  Above that he placed safety and security needs.  Rising further up the pyramid, he placed love and belongingness needs, the personal emotional connections.  Near the top of the pyramid, he…

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LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker

LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker

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Cameron’s “deal” not going down well After a stormy week during which he’s come under sustained attack from the papers that were so supportive last May the latest ICM EURef poll has LEAVE taking the lead for the first time. The figures are. LEAVE 42+3 REMAIN 41-1 This is just one point and a lot narrower than the 9% LEAVE lead that YouGov recently reported but it does reinforce that the general direction is to BREXIT. Of course these were…

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Alastair Meeks says that he EU is not as central an issue as many right wing activists think it is

Alastair Meeks says that he EU is not as central an issue as many right wing activists think it is

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A look at the referendum’s salience Last Monday, UKIP wandered into another of their controversies over gay rights.  Alan Craig, who has in the past called equality campaigners the Gaystapo and described gay marriage as being as bad as the Nazi invasion of Poland, has been selected as a candidate for the London Assembly.  Most UKIP supporters are frustrated by the fuss.  They don’t believe in a relationship between sexuality and meteorology but really don’t see the views of some…

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The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it looks for BREXIT if actual words not used

The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it looks for BREXIT if actual words not used

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The ballot format gives a significant boost for REMAIN Since August PB has been featuring a regular table on the state of voting intentions for the referendum. For the sake of consistency the only polls that are included are those where the actual wording on the ballot, as above, is used. Some polls have used different formats like Lord Ashcroft in December in his large sample online poll. He wrote: “Rather than replicate the referendum question itself we asked people…

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