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Concern about the EU jumps to 4th in the latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

Concern about the EU jumps to 4th in the latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

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The 20% figure is highest for 13 years Europe/EU jumps to 4th place in latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/HC51gYMMtU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2016 Concern about the EU by sub groups in the February Ipsos-MORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/eDu0ez2jSG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2016 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV Show: Serious discussion for those seriously interested in political outcomes https://t.co/L8URISq49o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2016

The collective PBers’ EU Referendum prediction: REMAIN to win by 8.6%, turnout 62.75%

The collective PBers’ EU Referendum prediction: REMAIN to win by 8.6%, turnout 62.75%

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There’ll be further prize competitions end April and end May The chart above shows the breakdown by party supported of entrants in PB’s referendum prediction competition. Interestingly breaking this down by party support not one segment had LEAVE ahead although UKIP voters were very nearly there. People are competing for a £250 free bet with William Hill which has indicated that it will provide similar prizes as we get nearer the big day. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The White House Race, the referendum and the political bets of the week in the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

The White House Race, the referendum and the political bets of the week in the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

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Our fourth pilot TV show sees Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters and myself welcome the Labour peer and Oxford academic, Lord (Stewart) Wood of Anfield and the media relations director of William Hill, Graham Sharpe. The issues covered were how well Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton did in the Super Tuesday primaries; whether they are now certainties to be their party nominees; the EU referendum campaign and the prospects of Boris becoming Cameron’s successor. Also the third strand of this…

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The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality

The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality

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Table above: Opening excerpt EU Trade deals from 2000 onwards Alastair Meeks questions the assertions from LEAVE & Grayling There has been outrage on the Leave side at the suggestion in an official government paper that negotiations after a vote to leave the EU in the upcoming referendum might take up to 10 years or more.  Chris Grayling commented: “Claims that it will take twice as long to sort out a free trade deal with the EU as it did…

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Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk

Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk

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Embed from Getty Images BREXIT messaging has gone all over the place The referendum polling generally shows the EU hardly enthuses.  Yet Remain is still ahead in most of the polls.  One of the Leave campaign’s weaknesses is that there is as yet no agreement about what a vote for Leave stands for.  Many of the proposed answers are mutually inconsistent.  What should the intending Leave voter expect?  Here are some of the possibilities. Voting Leave doesn’t really mean Exit:…

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Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory

Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory

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QSaw  NO2AV won by 35.8% The table shows the published AV referendum polls for February/early March in 2011 about two months before the election in early May. As can be seen  all the online polls had leads for the YES camp. The only phone poll, ICM, had it level-pegging. Unlike the EU Referendum there was much less interest and awareness and, of course, these  were carried out before the Cameron-approved anti-Clegg attack adds that dominated the final period. But the…

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Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

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Predict the LEAVE and turnout percentages to 2 decimal points Win a £250 free bet at William Hill Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter the LEAVE and turnout pecentage down to decimal points The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error. I am delighted to announce that William Hill has once again agreed to provide a competition prize of a free bet for £250. If the winner does not have an account…

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