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Category: EU Referendum

DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled voters in breach of election law

DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled voters in breach of election law

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Another controversial Brexit court case in pipeline. CPS considering complaint that leave campaigns misled voters https://t.co/rQqvAT1Glz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2016 It’s hard to know how to assess the seriousness This afternoon’s report is the first anybody has heard of this and it is difficult to know what will happen if anything. The complaint has been made by Prof Bob Watt, who is an expert in electoral law at the University of Buckingham. The Guardian report notes: “Watt…

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New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconciled to leaving EU

New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconciled to leaving EU

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80% of remainers think we’ll be worse off – just 5% better off This is quite an interesting question from YouGov which the firm’s been using in one form or another since well before the referendum. The splits in the chart are the most stark – how those who voted REMAIN view it compared with LEAVE voters. Amongst GE2015 voters just CON voters tell YouGov that they believe country will be better off. 32% say worse off. Amongst the different…

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Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would’ve produced a different result

Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would’ve produced a different result

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Theresa May is wrong to assert that the referendum outcome was “clear” The chart above shows the winning margins in the four major referendums that there have been in the UK and illustrates just how small the LEAVE victory on June 23rd was compared with the other big UK rerefendums. Certainly the 1975 EC vote and the 2011 AV one gave very clear results which it is hard to argue with. Scotland’s IndyRef in September 2014 had a double digit…

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A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair

A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair

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The extraordinary moves on the biggest night of political betting ever Even though it is now more than three months away I am still getting asked question and being invited to give talks on what happened on the betting markets on that memorable night for political punters – the EU referendum results. The above has been prepared for a session in Brussels that I am taking part in later in the month. Michael Dent of Liberty Tech, is now providing…

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The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived

The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived

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High levels of postal voting mean we should look at the final 3 weeks not just the final polls Just got back from holiday in the south of France and am focusing on the political session at a big betting conference that I am taking part in on Friday . Inevitably we will be looking back at what happened on June 23rd – the biggest political betting election ever. There’s a widespread perception that the polls got the outcome wrong…

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Wiping out the Lib Dems might have been Cameron’s greatest strategic mistake as Prime Minister

Wiping out the Lib Dems might have been Cameron’s greatest strategic mistake as Prime Minister

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Picture: The apotheosis of the Tory targeting of the Lib Dems at the last general election. Why Cameron might still be PM if the coalition had continued after May 2015. When David Cameron reflects on his earlier than anticipated departure as Prime Minister I wonder if in hindsight he’ll regret his and Sir Lynton’s Crosby targeting of the Lib Dem held seats at the last general election. At the time the 27 Tory gains from the Lib Dems was hailed…

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Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

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Extraordinary 90 day EURef betting chart on the £120m Betfair market. LEAVE wasn't favourite till 3am on Jun 24th pic.twitter.com/Fpr06yxTvB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2016 And on the final day Peak REMAIN 2210 June 23rd pic.twitter.com/A2Ot15QFyX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2016