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Category: EU Referendum

If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

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This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads. Inevitably this has had an impact on the huge EUref betting markets where on Betfair alone getting on for £0.5m is being wagered each day. As I write REMAIN’s chances are rated by the market at 79% just about the highest it has ever been. But what if there were…

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Against the trend of other recent phone polls ComRes for the Mail has the REMAIN lead getting smaller

Against the trend of other recent phone polls ComRes for the Mail has the REMAIN lead getting smaller

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New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016 New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016

Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for their turnout model and its implications for EURef

Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for their turnout model and its implications for EURef

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A special post by ComRes’s Adam Ludlow The polls for the London mayoral election performed strongly across the board, perhaps bringing pollsters some respite following last year’s General Election. But as pollsters, we must be careful never to rest on our laurels and make sure to review our methods and seek to improve when things go well, as well as when bigger problems occur. Indeed, at ComRes, the London result was of particular interest to us as it was the…

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Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

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A guide by Alastair Meeks on betting on the overall EURef outcome Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event.  It’s time to put that right. At the time of writing, Remain is 1.31 on Betfair (a 76% chance)   I understand that the conventional bookies have seen Remain overwhelmingly favoured at all stages despite the short odds offered.  Should you be…

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The EU Dog that hasn’t barked. Yet

The EU Dog that hasn’t barked. Yet

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A guest slot by Cyclefree It was Socrates who said that the “unexamined life is not worth living”.  By the same token, one might also say that the unexamined EU is not worth being a member of. And – despite all the claims and counter-claims, exaggerations, half-truths, figures plucked out of obscure studies or the air and celebrity or heavy weight endorsements – it often feels that all the referendum campaign has amounted to is little more than “a tale…

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The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” simply isn’t resonating

The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” simply isn’t resonating

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It’s been a big morning with EURef polling. First we had YouGov online showing a 4% IN lead on a revised methodology. Then then we had the May Ipsos phone poll in the Standard with IN extending its lead to 18%. That’s a huge margin and it is starting to look insurmountable. This means that the three phone polls this week all have REMAIN extending its margin even though the numbers vary from pollster to pollster. The Ipsos lead is…

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The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel strongly about it either way

The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel strongly about it either way

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Alastair Meeks on the messaging challenges this presents for IN and OUT Leave campaigners have been vehemently arguing that we urgently need to leave the EU for many years as a top priority.  Such is their vehemence and their prominence, it is easy to forget that this is a minority view.  Ipsos-MORI have been tracking what the public considers to be the important issues of the day for decades.  Most of the time, the EU languishes at about 10% naming…

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