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Category: EU matters

David Cameron’s popularity – the reason why we are having an EU referendum and the reason why LEAVE is likely to lose

David Cameron’s popularity – the reason why we are having an EU referendum and the reason why LEAVE is likely to lose

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The reason, of course, why we are having an EU referendum is that the Conservatives had such a stunning and surprise victory in the general election. One of the key factors in that, I would argue, is the personality and popularity of David Cameron himself. Without the “Cameron premium” then it’s likely that the Tories would not be in power and able to decide. Just look at the polling above which was taken just before the general election. This is…

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David Herdson says the Migrant crisis has laid bare the EU’s big delusion

David Herdson says the Migrant crisis has laid bare the EU’s big delusion

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Ultimately, the Union must unite or perish Ever closer union: three words that have caused interminable difficulty for those who wanted – those who want – a European Common Market. Three words that are now superfluous, though not for the reasons that the Marketeers would like. The reason they’re superfluous is that the other initiatives the EU has undertaken contain an internal dynamic that supersedes any treaty rhetoric. Nowhere has that been more clearly demonstrated that with the migrant crisis…

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Tsipras’ own goal is Cameron’s gain

Tsipras’ own goal is Cameron’s gain

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David Herdson on a crucial weekend If there were any doubt that David Cameron is a lucky politician, events in Europe this last week have again made the point. No sooner had he suffered a setback at the European Council, failing to win a chance of treaty reform, than the Greek government gives him (inadvertently, no doubt), a huge helping hand. The decision of Alexis Tsipras to commit his government to destruction by a method to be determined by the…

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The Greek finance minister says he’d rather cut his arm off than sign a deal that doesn’t include debt relief

The Greek finance minister says he’d rather cut his arm off than sign a deal that doesn’t include debt relief

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Greek Fin Min @yanisvaroufakis won't sign deal without debt restructuring. #GreeceCrisis http://t.co/C6Qf4aQdLz pic.twitter.com/gbgHrr1ksD — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) July 2, 2015 Latest betting odds on the Greek referendum. pic.twitter.com/nAOfZvhB2u — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 2, 2015 The betting markets seem to believe that Yes will win, but I suspect whatever the outcome either the Greek government or the Euro in Greece will be gone shortly after the referendum result is announced. This might lead to the government, money, people and businesses wanting…

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The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

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  The big risers are Immigration/Immigrants and EU/Europe, which seems understandable given the focus on the EU referendum since the election. The big faller is the economy, which maybe confirmation of the fifteen year high in consumer confidence that the pollster GfK found yesterday. For me the most interesting aspect of this polling is the below chart. There’s a real difference between the ages, so the older groups are more concerned by the EU than younger ones, this as has…

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Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

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BREAKING: German government official says it is now too late for an extension of the Greek bailout programme. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 BREAKING: Greek finance minister says Greece will not pay the IMF on Tuesday. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 For the Greek people, it appears this tragedy has been going on longer than it took Odysseus reach home after the fall of Troy, but looking at the above tweets, it is looking like that we…

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In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drachma

In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drachma

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See the footnote RT @JohnRentoul Looks as if Grexit really is going to happen either next week or after referendum pic.twitter.com/T4MHCgUMAx — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 27, 2015 Very surreal atmosphere in press room here in Brussels. One journalist in tears. Most reporters shocked euro rupture is happening. #Greece — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 27, 2015 It appears, unsurprisingly, that all the bookies have suspended their markets on the outcome of the referendum and Greek exiting the Euro after this announcement…

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