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Category: EU matters

Britain’s EU hokey-cokey: what would ‘in again’ look like and why isn’t Remain talking about it?

Britain’s EU hokey-cokey: what would ‘in again’ look like and why isn’t Remain talking about it?

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  There’d be no special status second time round If there was one thing that won the Scottish Independence referendum for No (or Remain in current parlance), it was the currency question. The uncertainty surrounding what currency an independent Scotland would use, whether it would be forced into the Euro, which central bank – if any – would underpin the financial system and so on was not only a massive inhibitive in its own right but also encapsulated the wider…

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The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

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The EURef highlights Europe’s ambivalence to its buffer state “Bridge Together”: Istanbul’s slogan for its unsuccessful 2020 Olympic bid captured well the country’s unifying potential, linking as it does not only Europe and Asia but also the secular west with the Islamic Middle East. A bridge, however, needs firm foundations and Turkey, rather than pulling two sides together, is more swayed by the forces pulling it in opposite directions. Hence the force of the arguments this week about its potential…

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Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide: Remain 8% lead remains

Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide: Remain 8% lead remains

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I’m off to London this after to record the first PB/Polling Matters TV Show in our new studios near Victoria. Keiran Pedley and I will, no doubt, spend a lot of time discussing the polling and trying to make sense of it. There’s also been news of a London EURef poll. London Evening Standard report on Opinium #EUREF poll in the capital https://t.co/t0Z3YwB4Aj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2016 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Remain’s long term problems

Remain’s long term problems

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Imagine a UK EU In/Out Referendum with these two in The White House & Number 10 respectively. Pic by @GeneralBoles pic.twitter.com/MsAd7FZawl — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 24, 2016 Even if Remain wins in June, there may be future In/Out referendums and that should give Leave hope and worry Remain. One of the most interesting aspects of this referendum campaign is David Cameron ignoring Harold Wilson’s precedent of sitting out an In/Out EC/EU referendum. The reason for the breaking this precedent might…

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Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

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https://twitter.com/robson_evan/status/722035639609376768 https://twitter.com/SimonGosden/status/721759490673139712 It’s in non-CON interests for the Tory battles to go on and on A party at war is pretty sight if you are not a supporter. The way this first Monday of the official referendum campaign has gone isn’t doing the Tories any favours and it is going to go on and on. It is an extraordinary spectacle. A Conservative Chancellor sets out projections of what BREXIT could cost and we see a huge effort from fellow Tories…

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This week’s PB Polling Matters TV Show on BREXIT turnout, Trump and how to spread bet on politics

This week’s PB Polling Matters TV Show on BREXIT turnout, Trump and how to spread bet on politics

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This week Keiran Pedley is on holiday so I took the chair for the first time to host the programme which turned out to be quite lively. Guests were Leo Barasi and Ed Fulton – the US specialist from Sporting Index. I was pleased with the outcome which is, I hope, a good watch. There’s quite a focus on the betting angle with some interesting tips. Thanks for all the position reactions to earlier episodes. UPDATE: The audio podcast version…

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Nick Palmer says both sides in the referendum have got to stop sounding so gloomy

Nick Palmer says both sides in the referendum have got to stop sounding so gloomy

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< Positive messages might swing votes It’s been widely observed that the referendum campaign is a contest between negatives. Vote Remain because leaving would reduce the country to smouldering ashes, or Vote Leave because remaining would doom us to surrender to Brussels bureaucrats forever. The impression given is that we have a choice of extremely bearish scenarios, with little hope either way. It is generally accepted by professionals that the outcome will be decided by people who have no strong...

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