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Category: EU matters

If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

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Wikipedia Over the last couple of days there been the first post local elections polls on the May 23rd Euro elections. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table the Brexit party is staying pretty stable in pole position with the Labour Party about 3% behind and the Tories much further down. In fact the latest Opinium poll has the Tories on 14% with the Lib Dems up 5 on 12%. It was always going to be, though, that the…

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Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

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Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of…

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UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

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Even under Blair LAB never “won” a Euro election While everybody is getting over excited at the moment about the prospect of the May 23rd Euro elections we should remind ourselves and how they have been totally non indicative of what’s going to happen at the following general election Back in 1999, the first General Election after Tony Blair’s landslide, William Hague’s Tories came out as the top party with 33.5% of the vote 7 points ahead of Labour. Two…

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Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

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As if the people aren’t confused enough as it is It has just been reported that the new party, change UK, has had its party logo rejected by the Electoral Commission on the grounds that it could “mislead voters”. Apparently the emblem was a black square with the initials TIG and the hashtag “#change”.  Apparently the Commission took the view that the new party’s chosen emblem was not sufficiently well known. But Change UK should be registered in time to…

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Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

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The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option. I) A polarised electorate and polarising election. This election will be seen as a de facto referendum on Brexit, Remainers and Leavers will want to utilise their vote to send a message on Brexit….

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The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

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Wikipedia With, unless there’s deal with the EU before then, Euro elections taking place in the UK on May 23rd we are going to get a lot of polling on the elections that few expected to take place. As can be seen in 2074 the Tory share barely varied in the final three weeks while UKIP, then with Nigel Farage, bounced round quite a lot. A few polls had LAB ahead but the majority pointed to a victory for the…

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So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections

So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections

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This could be good branding for possible Euro elections One of he potentially big developments that came out at the end of last week was the decision by the Independent Group to seek registration as an official party under the name of  Change UK. The grouping, of course, features the LAB MPs who left Corbyn’s party in February followed by the three women Tory MPs who left their party a few days later. It is the only grouping that has…

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The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels

The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels

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For most of the modern era Italy has been treated as something of a lightweight in world affairs despite being one of the world’s largest economies. This has often been on the back of weak and unpredictable government which has stopped Italy taking a wider role. Within the European Union itself Italy has been treated as something inconsequential despite being a founder member. Northern Europeans and especially German politicians have been openly scathing about the country. More recently Emmanuel Macron…

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