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Category: EU matters

Warnings by industry on dangers of an EU exit might be having an impact

Warnings by industry on dangers of an EU exit might be having an impact

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STAY draws level with LEAVE in new YouGov EU referendum poll For the first time since January YouGov’s “how would you vote in an EU referendum” polling has not had LEAVE in the lead. The latest figures, broken down by party supported are in the chart above. These splits are what you’d expect. Opinion seems to have moved quite sharply since the summer. In May it was LEAVE 47% to STAY 30%. An element that might be having an impact…

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2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ party

2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ party

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Henry G Manson on the start of conference season Lord Oakeshott’s interview in The House magazine will capture the headlines because of his claim Nick Clegg will cost the Liberal Democrats a large amount of seats. One thing he does point to is less contentious but almost as significant – May 2014 Oakeshott believes “this will be much the biggest test we’ve had on a nationwide basis of our support and our appeal since the general election, so that’s why…

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Fewer than one in five rate rank renegotiating with the EU as a top government priority

Fewer than one in five rate rank renegotiating with the EU as a top government priority

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New test of salience of issues from TNS-BMRB As we’ve discussed many times here before the salience of an issue can be as important as establishing what people’s view are. Tonight’s sees a new polling question from TNS BMRB which lists a series of possible priorities and asks respondents to select up to three of them. The outcome is seen in the chart above. As can be seen just 19% of the sample placed renegotiating with the EU in their…

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Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

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After last night’s ICM poll which has UKIP down to 7% with the CON and LAB level-pegging it is inevitable that people will focus on the firm particularly its record with Farage’s party. There’s little doubt at the moment that the main differences between the pollsters is what they are recording for UKIP. If they find Farage’s party getting a high share then the Tories are doing worse. The chart above shows the UKIP shares in the final polls before…

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In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on favourites to come top on votes at next year’s Euro

In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on favourites to come top on votes at next year’s Euro

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UKIP remain odds-on favourite to win most votes at Euro2014. See pic.twitter.com/xhe95mdgjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2013 I still think the Tories could surprise us The 4% average poll decline experienced by UKIP last month has not impacted on the betting on next year’s Euro elections. As the chart shows they are still odds on favorite. My money, at 10/1 is on the Tories coming out on top – a position they’ve achieved in every Euro election since…

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As the EU referendum bill is published new YouGov polling raises questions about the salience of Europe as an issue

As the EU referendum bill is published new YouGov polling raises questions about the salience of Europe as an issue

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Today's issues tracker from YouGov sees just 32% of UKIP voters saying Europe is one of top 3 issues facing country. pic.twitter.com/20GmVJ8or4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013 Is the bill really going to stop the seepage to Farage’s party? Today sees the publication of the EU referendum bill and, coincidentally the latest issues tracker from YouGov which unlike Ipsos-MORI does prompt when asking respondents to name the important areas of concern. The detailed breakdown is in the YouGov…

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