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Category: Eastleigh

If Eastleigh goes to Ukip EdM could be the only leader left standing at GE2015

If Eastleigh goes to Ukip EdM could be the only leader left standing at GE2015

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The outcome will change the way we look at GE2015 Consider for a moment what is at stake for the coalition party leaders, Dave and Nick, as they prepare to fight the Eastleigh by-election. This is unlike any of the other by-elections in this parliament because, on paper at least, the battle doesn’t involve the red team as we’ve seen from the latest Populus poll. Until now the general election hopes for the Lib Dems have been kept alive by…

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Very high levels of don’t knows amongst 2010 voters in Times Populus Eastleigh poll suggest that battle is still wide open

Very high levels of don’t knows amongst 2010 voters in Times Populus Eastleigh poll suggest that battle is still wide open

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Pie chart showing breakdown of support in today’s Times Populus #Eastleigh poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2013 The only real certainty is that Labour is out of it Overnight I’ve been fortunate to have be given the dataset from today’s Populus Eastleigh poll for the Times and the big message is that this battle is far tighter than the 5% Lib Dem lead might suggest. Very significant numbers of 2010 voters for the three main parties, 30%…

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Lib Dems move to a 5 point lead in Eastleigh with Populus

Lib Dems move to a 5 point lead in Eastleigh with Populus

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  Lib Dems 33 (+2) Conservatives 28 (-6) UKIP 21 (+8) Labour 11 (-8) The changes are from the Populus poll for Lord Ashcroft earlier on this month, this is not a strict comparison, but for illustrative purposes, PBers can decide for themselves, if they prefer this approach or not. Other salient points from the poll But the Populus poll suggests that the election will be swayed by local issues rather than national figures. Fewer than two in five (37…

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The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

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Big split in betting opinion on Ukip’s chances of winning #Eastleigh. PaddyPower have it at 25/1 – Ladbrokes now 12/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 Farage’s party will do better than we think All the reports I am getting from Eastleigh suggest that Ukip is going to do well in the by-election next Thursday and those who took my advice on Monday to back them in the LAB vote match markets are likely to end up as…

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Why the Speccie’s James Forsyth thinks the Eastleigh Lib Dems are a “racing certainty”

Why the Speccie’s James Forsyth thinks the Eastleigh Lib Dems are a “racing certainty”

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A bitterly cold Thursday morning in #Eastleigh. twitter.com/AdLibMag/statu… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 The by-election is all about the power of the party databases There’s an excellent feature in the latest Spectator by political editor, James Forsyth, in which he gets to the heart of why the yellows should hold the seat. It’s all about the data and how it’s deployed. Forsyth writes: “… While the Tories are knocking on doors trying to find supporters, the Lib Dems…

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The CON Eastleigh campaign goes into damage limitation mode for the final week

The CON Eastleigh campaign goes into damage limitation mode for the final week

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Latest Lib Dem poster highlighting CON candidate absence from this morning’s 5live hustings. twitter.com/NickThornsby/s… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 .@timfarron on Hutchings no-show tmrw at 5Live Eastleigh special: “You hv to ask why the Conservative machine keeps trying to hide her away” — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 20, 2013 On balance keeping Hutchings off 5live today was correct No doubt the post mortem on the CON Eastleigh campaign will focus how the party found itself lumbered with a…

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Pic of the day? Boris telling Tim Montgomerie that he is opposed to the mansion tax

Pic of the day? Boris telling Tim Montgomerie that he is opposed to the mansion tax

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Boris explaining ro Tim Montgomerie that he was wrong on mansion taxes. twitpic.com/c5erpe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 Just another campaign visit to Eastleigh This is Michael White’s report of the Mayor’s 30 minutes of door-knocking in Eastleigh. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Guido joins the rush to bet on the yellows in Eastleigh

Guido joins the rush to bet on the yellows in Eastleigh

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#Eastleigh. Further moves to LDs & Ukip for 3rd based on ACTUAL latest Betfair bets. LD 75% chance, CON 20% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 LDs#Eastleigh: 4/11 Ladbrokes bit.ly/c5gpH6, 1/3 Hills bit.ly/u6wr 2/7 Bet365 bit.ly/g4saCk &PaddyPower — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 Why Guido is betting heavily on a yellow victory in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013