Everything points to Biden winning big. Believe it. Why do we not believe the evidence in front of us? Sometimes it’s because we don’t want to accept the bad news it reveals; sometimes it’s because we daren’t believe the good news for fear of jinxing it; it may be that we had our fingers burnt by believing something similar in the past which then turned out differently; or maybe the outcome is so far from our experiences that it feels…
My main betting on the White House Race has been on the SportingIndex spread betting markets. I bought at 284 Electoral College Votes and the latest split is SELL 307 and BUY 313. So I could, if I wanted, get out of my position this afternoon and get 23 times my stake even if, in the election itself, Biden does worse than that. Of course if the polling continues to be as good for Biden as the latest CNN poll…
The big politicalbetting news is that Betfair has now reopened its White House race markets which were temporarily closed before the weekend when Trump announced that he had contracted coronavirus. The period of the shutdown is reflected in the straight horizontal lines on the above chart showing how the market has moved over over the last month. We have had so much in this past week including the first TV debate and of course that not just Trump but quite…
Sometimes it’s worth asking a QTWTAIN even when you know the answer The ancient Greeks gave us many things. Democracy. Really long poems. The kebab*. Proof by contradiction. Let’s combine two of them now, in a manner of speaking, to look at where the US election might be going in the light of Donald Trump contracting Covid-19. Everyone should be wishing Donald Trump well right now. Those who want him to win, for obvious reasons; those who want him to…
Betfair suspend next President market Big news in the last few minutes is that Trump has Tweeted that he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. This is what he wrote: Earlier in the night he had Tweeted that they were having a test. Clearly this will impact on the betting and Betfair have just suspended their next President market.
In the aftermath of the Tuesday night TV debate between Trump and Biden there has been a marked change in the betting on who will win November’s White House election. The chart of the Betfair exchange market is very clear and there is little doubt that many punters that have come to the conclusion that the challenger is set to win the November 3rd election. What has impressed me is how many senior Republicans have refused to back Trump on…
There’s been a huge amount of commentary and analysis following the overnight first Trump-Biden debate ahead of the November election. One of the best pieces is by David Frum in The Atlantic: Trump yelled, threatened, interrupted—and changed nothing. All he did was confirm the horror and revulsion of the large American majority that has already begun to cast its ballots against him. Correction: Trump did one thing. On the Cleveland stage, Trump communicated that he will seize any opportunity to…
I made the mistake of staying up and watching the Trump – Biden debate which was truly awful. This was the verdict of Taegan Goddard of PoliticalWire: This debate was one of the most embarrassing events in the history of American politics. Donald Trump’s only strategy was to interrupt constantly. When he talked, he mostly lied. But Trump was successful at throwing the entire debate off the rails. He apparently decided you can’t lose a debate if you ruin it. Joe…