Is now the time to try this form of betting? With an Obama victory looking more and more certain the focus is moving away from who’ll be the next President to how many electoral college votes the two contenders will win. An interesting way to bet on this is through the spread markets. Here you “buy and sell” electoral college votes as though they were stocks and shares and the more you are right with your forecast the more you…
Will de-humanising his opponent reinforce the racist vote? One thing that became clear during the second 90 minute presidential debate is that John McCain is not going to do anything in public that hides his clear animosity towards his opponent. Clearly his camp has worked out that “Obama-hate” is going to be the best way of getting the Republican vote out on November 4th and McCain’s whole demeanour seemed geared to that end. And who is to say that it…
Why £23 of my Mandy profit is going on PRESIDENT Palin As I have reported before I continue to be intrigued by Sarah Palin. Is she up to something? Could conceivably she try to boot McCain off the top of the ticket even though we are just four weeks from polling day? Are there any betting opportunities? All this has been reinforced by a column in the New York Times by Frank Rich in which he contrasts McCain’s health and…
Will British voters learn from the lessons of a new American Presidency? In a fantastic post over at the Spectator Magazine’s Coffee House blog, James Forsyth asks whether an expected Obama presidency will either prove or disprove Gordon Brown’s claim that “this is no time for a novice” He writes “If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose…
Or is this still fundamentally a tight race? Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that said “forbidding a landslide (ie a victory in the popular vote of more than 5%), the 2008 map is unlikely to look significantly different to the maps from 2000 and 2004”. I still think that is true, but the last two weeks have seen a marked movement in both the polls and the betting markets towards Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics (fresh from a…
Will it be the non-political interaction that matters most? The picture is the hall at the university in St. Louis as it was being prepared for the only VP debate of the 2008 Presidential election that will take place tonight. There has been enormous interest especially over whether Sarah Palin will be able to hold her own. Expectations for her are certainly at rock bottom follow some terrible TV interviews where her lack of knowledge and her home-spun manner have…
Would an ending of the crisis put McCain back in contention? So it’s another day and for Barack Obama and John McCain there are just five weeks more left before Americans vote to decide the next occupant of the White House. The chart, based on the judgement of punters on the Betfair betting exchange says it all. Two weeks ago McCain’s chances of success based on his betting price were put at 45%. This morning they are about 28% –…
Would the global financial collapse be the peg to hang it on? As the chart below shows there’s been a dramatic change in the fortunes of John McCain over the past fortnight. From a position where he was heading towards evens his declining opinion poll ratings have meant that he’s now moved out to more than 2/1 on Betfair. A growing concern must be the performance of his VP pick, Sarah Palin. While the world was distracted by the financial…