Where did he get his amazing prices? The above story features in today’s Mail on Sunday and suggests that green campaigner and Tory candidate, Zac Goldsmith, won about £150,000 on Barack Obama for the White House. That’s great and many PBers also made big profits on the race. But where did he get the quoted prices and which bookies were ready to let him bet at levels which for us mere mortals are not possible. I had long bets on…
What I am carrying forward into 2009 At midnight tonight, assuming nothing untoward happens to Gord, I pick up on quite a hefty bet that I placed in the early summer at 5/6 that Brown would still be Prime Minister at the end of the year. And if by any remote chance he doesn’t there are a another couple of bets I placed at 6/1 and 5/1 at a different time that he would be out by the end of…
Will the GOP race be down to Palin against Huntsman? Exactly a month ago today I made my first bet of the 2012 White House Race – £50 at 200/1 on Jon Huntsman, the young governor of Utah for President. Since then the Ladbrokes price on my man has tightened to 33/1 with 20/1 on him getting the Republican nomination. In the meantime there’s news that the highly tipped governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, is making it clear that he…
My first 2012 bet: Jon Huntsman at 200/1 When the first 2012 White House race betting prices were being compiled last week many of the names that came up were ones we were familiar with already – 2008 contenders and those who had been tipped at one stage or another as John McCain’s running mate. One person who has hardly been mentioned and, indeed, only one bookie is quoting a price is Jon Huntsman, governor of Utah and someone who…
Share your experiences The US presidential election is by far and away the biggest political betting event of them all and my guess is that the level of activity that we have seen in the past year will exceed what’s wagered on the next UK general election. Hopefully we’ve all managed to get a bit of sleep and the lucky ones have been able to to start to receive some of their winnings although those with positions linked to electoral…
How the battle shaped up It’s quite a shock, looking at the chart showing the implied probabilities of becoming president, that just a year ago the aggregate chance of their success as rated by UK punters was put at a paltry 13%. The final play-off on November 4th 2008, as we were all the pundits were telling us at the time, was going to be between Hilary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Both McCain and Obama were helped enormously by massive…
Learn from the costly lessons of 2004 Four years ago a lot of punters lost a lot of money by reading too much into the leaks and then the official exit polls themselves. This is a note that has been issued by John McCain’s head of polling – Bill McInturff – which I am reproducing in full. For the record I have decided not to bet at all today. In 2004 I came close to losing a small fortune when…
Is there money to be made guessing the timing? After paying out on winning Obama bets a fortnight ago the Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, has made another betting move which could infuriate those who still harbour hopes that somehow the polls are wrong and that 72 year old Senator from Arizona can win tomorrow. They’ve opened betting on the timing of his concession speech- which is clearly linked very closely to the time-table of state results that we will see overnight….