The chart above shows the change in the Romney price on the biggest White House betting market of all – Intrade. The trend is very clear – Intrade punters, many of them in the US, were putting their money on Obama and selling Romney. Taegan Goddard’s verdict – Obama wins hands down bit.ly/OXN4qW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 BREAKING: CBS NEWS INSTANT POLL Who won the #Debate? OBAMA: 53%; ROMNEY: 23%, TIE: 24% (Margin of Error: 4%; Sample…
The third debate opens with the focus on the middle east twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
Ohio (18 electoral college votes) Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Florida (29 electoral college votes) Iowa (6 electoral college votes) Will tonight’s final debate change the direction? This is so so close and I now finding I’m checking the early voting data (good link here) several times as day to see if there’s any discernible movement. My current betting position is that I’m now back on Romney but am “all in the green” at Betfair which…
That is tonight’s range of national White House polls Gallup: Romney 52%, Obama 45% IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, Romney 42% NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Obama 47%, Romney 47% Public Policy Polling: Obama 48%, Romney 48% Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 47% And tomorrow night there’s the third and final debate. The stakes couldn’t be any higher. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
The swing states are getting tighter A number of poor swing state polls for Obama in the past 24 hours has caused me to switch my betting so that whatever happens I win the same amount. I am able to do this because over the last year I’ve traded in and out of different contenders and have what’s described as an all green book at Betfair. The Romney campaign’s TV strategy in the battle-grounds has always been to spend the…
Gallup used to be the Gold Standard. No more. They need to get busy & solve their problems. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 19, 2012 Top GOP pollster on Gallup’s 7-pt Romneylead nationally among likely voters: “There is nothing I am looking at that resembles that data.” — John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 18, 2012 Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he’d be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn’t spend a dime in FL. — Sean Trende (@SeanTrende)…
If the Gallup 7% Romney lead is right then make money spread betting. Latest ECV spreads bit.ly/XszSeY twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2012 So far in this White House race we haven’t mentioned the spread betting markets which are a high risk high return form of punting. The basic feature is simple – the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. My experience of spread betting on…
Obama remains firm odds-on favourite on Betfair. Romney a bit weaker since 2nd debate twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2012 For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB