In Britain 86% of Con supporters would choose Obama over Romney / 95% Lab / 96% Lib Dem @yougov #stat2watch twitter.com/JoeTwyman/stat… — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) October 31, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
Political gamblers on Intrade seem to think Obama’s doing better in the Sandy aftermath than Romnrey. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2012 For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
Hurricane Sandy is surely going to have some impact on next Tuesday’s presidential election – the question is what? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2012 You know what America *needs* right now? More blogposts assessing the political implications of #Sandy. Really, who gives a fuck about that? — alexmassie (@alexmassie) October 30, 2012 CAN’T BELIEVE METOROLOGISTS USED MATH AND SCIENCE TO PREDICT THIS STORM. THEY MUST BE MAGIC WIZARDS. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) October 30, 2012 Reminder: if…
The latest POLITICO swing state map showing how tight this is gettinggoo.gl/7nHNu twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 New Ohio phone poll has Obama and Romney level. See pic @politicalwire twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
The betting sentiment continues to move against Mitt Romney. See pic for how his Betfair price has changed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Meanwhile the ad onslaught in the swing states continues In past month there have been 58,235 political TV ads in Ohio. To watch them all continuously would take 80 days.is.gd/jv1DW5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Latest swing state polls Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs) Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%…
Little by little Ohio edges slowly away from Mitt Romney. See latest Real Clear Politics chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012 And on Betfair the Obama price moves to a 1/2 Real Clear Politics , which has been a leader in poll averaging in the US is quite selective about the polls that go into its calculation. It includes those where the field-work is carried out by robo-calling but does not take into account online surveys. Be…
Betfair punters move the Romney price up – see chart showing movement over past 24 hours twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2012 What will Donald Trump’s news do? Given how tight the national polling is it has, I’d suggest, been quite surprising that even as late as yesterday afternoon you could still get Romney at 2/1 on Betfair. That’s moved a fair bit since then and the question is whether this switch will run out of steam –…
Has the Mail got the the bottom of the “huge” Donald trump story about Obama – and will it impact on the race/ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Such muck-raking could help the President Over the past 36 hours there’s been much speculation over the “huge” announcement that Donald Trump has promised for tomorrow about Barack Obama. This evening the Daily Mail reported that Trump is to reveal divorce papers. We don’t know anything more than the…