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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

UPDATE: PB-William Hill White House 2012 prediction competition

UPDATE: PB-William Hill White House 2012 prediction competition

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As the final millions of #WH2012 votes continue to be counted Obama moves to a 3.13% lead.bit.ly/S7MJ5m twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 It could be 3 weeks before we know the winning margin It’s two weeks now since Barack Obama won his second terms – but the counting goes on and it could be three weeks before we have a definitive winning margin down to 2 decimal points on which we can award the prizes. In many…

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For entrants to the PB-William Hill White House competition the waiting goes on. It’ll be a few days before we get the final figures

For entrants to the PB-William Hill White House competition the waiting goes on. It’ll be a few days before we get the final figures

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Latest popular vote figures from #WH2012 see here. Obama lead now 2.7%. Still several million votes to come twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012 @weslangley The £1000 PB/William Hill WH2012 comp will be settled when we havefinal figs. Ohio doesn’t declare fully until Nov 17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012 @joshdixontweets A number of states accept postal absentee ballots for several days after election provided they are post-marked Nov 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12,…

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According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

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Nate Silver: nyti.ms/Z6kbM7 The Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012 Which did best – which did worst? Nate Silver of the New York Times has produced the above polling accuracy table. He’s based it on surveys in the final three weeks rather than just the closing poll. Nate’s reasoning is that there’s a tendency, which we see in the UK as well, for pollsters to herd round…

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David Herdson asks: Can anyone Unite the States again?

David Herdson asks: Can anyone Unite the States again?

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David Herdson looks at the implication of a divided United States. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53606 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2012 Have we seen the end of Presidential landslide victories? In the six presidential elections between 1964 and 1984, every state in the USA bar one (Arizona) voted at least once for a Republican and once for a Democrat. In the six most recent elections, between 1992 and 2012, only nineteen have done so. For the third time in four US…

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Suddenly New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand (50-1) is being talked about as the 2016 Democratic Party nominee

Suddenly New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand (50-1) is being talked about as the 2016 Democratic Party nominee

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My first Dem nomination 2016 bet: 66/1 on Sen Kirsten Gillibrand of NY – reelected on Tues with 72% of vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2012 Time to start thinking about 2016 There’s always something rather pleasurable about picking, at long odds, a party nominee or a president four years out. What you need is value – a long shot who might just do it for you. In 2005 I got on Barack Obama at 50/1. My…

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The anti-Romney attack ad that is said to have been the most effective

The anti-Romney attack ad that is said to have been the most effective

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And news of the PB prediction competition According to the Washington Post this was probably one of the most effective of the campaign. On YouTube it has had nearly three million views. It wasn’t from the Obama campaign itself but one of the so-called “Super PACs” that was supporting him campaign without having any links to the official campaign itself. As the campaign hit its peak negative ads like this were filling almost all the commercial breaks if you were…

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The perils of the prediction business

The perils of the prediction business

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Dick Morris in his Fox News piece on the eve of the election How the national pollsters did A useful table showing the accuracy of the final polls themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/11/0… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB