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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls conducted with live interviews

Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls conducted with live interviews

“Shy Trump” supporters – possibly? Above is the national WH2016 polling for the past ten days. Clinton’s ahead in all but notice the big difference between those surveys which were conducted by live interviewers over the phone and those which used the internet or automated phone calls to get responses. The trend is clear. Hillary does much better when those sampled are talking to a real person. When that’s not how the poll was conducted we see a different picture….

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Latest WH2016 swing state polls have Clinton equalling or doing better than Obama’s 2012 result

Latest WH2016 swing state polls have Clinton equalling or doing better than Obama’s 2012 result

We are getting to a stage where the really interesting WH2016 polls are not the national ones but how well Clinton and Trump are doing in the key swing states where White House Elections are won and lost.  This is probably not more than ten and it is where all the intensive campaigning takes pace. It is helpful to show what happened in in Obama-Romney fights in 2012. Michigan was won by Obama with a 9.5% margin in 2012. The…

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Billionaire Republican fundraiser, Meg Whitman, says she’ll raise money for Hillary Clinton in order to stop Trump

Billionaire Republican fundraiser, Meg Whitman, says she’ll raise money for Hillary Clinton in order to stop Trump

Another sign of the party splits that the Trump nomination has created The big WH2016 news overnight is a story in the New York Times that prominent GOP fundraiser and Hewlett Packard executive, Meg Whitman, has announced that she’s supporting Hillary Clinton and will help raise money for her campaign. According to the New York Times she says she’s taking the action in order to stop Trump who she describes as a threat to American democracy. She told the paper:-…

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A hundred days to go until the 2016 White House election on November 8th

A hundred days to go until the 2016 White House election on November 8th

James Burt (The White Rabbit) looks at where we are There are now less than one hundred days to go before America goes to the polls in the 2016 Presidential race. If a week is a long time in politics, then three months is enough for some pretty big shifts in popular opinion. However the party conventions have given an indication of what Clinton and Trump will be trying to do in to do in that time. The most sustained…

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WH2016 – updated polling and betting

WH2016 – updated polling and betting

My WH2016 National polling table. I'll be doing key state surveys soon. pic.twitter.com/re3wHD9yA0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2016 90 day Betfair WH2016 chart pic.twitter.com/wPHyIr5CQu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2016

Now let’s see if Hillary gets a polling bounce that out does Trump’s last week

Now let’s see if Hillary gets a polling bounce that out does Trump’s last week

I didn’t stay up overnight to watch Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech at the end of the Democratic convention but it seems to have been well received. The betting markets have moved a notch back towards here but we need to see a full range of post convention polling before we can start drawing conclusions. If the polling averages from next Monday onwards are just showing this to be level pegging then Trump could be said to be the winner of…

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US election round-up following Obama’s convention speech and Trump’s call to Russia

US election round-up following Obama’s convention speech and Trump’s call to Russia

Front page of today's New York Daily News pic.twitter.com/WkV37TpBPj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 28, 2016 Pew Research projection of make up of the US electorate showing how its becoming much more diverse pic.twitter.com/UlTYAuFbbX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 28, 2016 Very powerful speech by Obama at Democratic Convention. One of his best ever https://t.co/wMjLml0Scf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 28, 2016