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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Extraordinary. The betting odds on both Biden and Trump now longer than evens

Extraordinary. The betting odds on both Biden and Trump now longer than evens

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Neither nominee is convincing punters Above are the the overnight odds on the £70m “Next President” market on the Betfair exchange. Given that this is a two horse race it really is quite extraordinary that punters are rating both their chances as longer than evens even if only by a fraction. Both men, of course, are in the mid-70s, (Trump’s 74 Biden 77) and there must be an increased actuarial possibility that at least one might not make it across…

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WH2020: Latest polling from Biden’s three must win states

WH2020: Latest polling from Biden’s three must win states

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Michigan 16 Electoral College votes Wisconsin 10 Electoral College votes Pennsylvania – 20 Electoral College votes We are now just two months away from the US Presidential elections and rather than focus on national polling I thought it would be useful to review every so often how things are going in the key swing states that the Democrats need to win in order to unseat Trump in November. We all know each state is a separate battleground with couple of…

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As Biden moves to evens on Betfair new Ipsos WH2020 poll has him leading Trump by 15% on favourability

As Biden moves to evens on Betfair new Ipsos WH2020 poll has him leading Trump by 15% on favourability

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There’s a new ABC News/Ipsos WH2020 poll out with its first leadership ratings since the end of the conventions. As can be seen above Biden has moved 46% favourable in the latest poll which is up 6% over three weeks ago. He’s also seen his unfavourable numbers decline. Trump has gone the other way. He’s slipped from 35% favourable three weeks ago to 30% in this latest poll. His unfavourable ratings have remained pretty constant. I regard leader ratings as…

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First post convention polling has Biden retaining his clear lead but no signs of a bounce

First post convention polling has Biden retaining his clear lead but no signs of a bounce

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Generally speaking in previous White House races the big party conventions have been the trigger for significant moves in the polling. This year because of the pandemic the conventions are virtual and all eyes are on the the first full surveys to come out following the Democratic party event which finished on Thursday night. So far there is only one new poll carried out totally after the convention and that has Biden with a 9% lead rather than an 8%…

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In the WH2020 betting the Trump price continues to recover

In the WH2020 betting the Trump price continues to recover

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On Betfair the total matched now exceeds £60m This week has, of course, been the Democratic convention which because of the pandemic has been a virtual one. This has meant none of the last spectacle that we normally associate with US conventions but the party has used the prime time TV coverage that it has got to send out specific messages and promote specific people. Last night Joe Biden was up with his acceptance speech and the general view of…

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On the eve of the virtual Democratic convention new polling shows strong support for Biden’s VP choice Kamala Harris

On the eve of the virtual Democratic convention new polling shows strong support for Biden’s VP choice Kamala Harris

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A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has good news for the Democrats on the eve of their virtual convention and after a week which has seen Kamala Harris become Biden’s VP pick. The data shows that more Americans approve than disapprove of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris by a 25-point margin, 54% to 29%. Amongst Republican voters the split is is 25-55% – so quite a high proportion backing the Senator from California. The split amongst Democrats is 86-8%. Another positive figure…

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So far the Kamala Harris announcement hasn’t impacted on the WH2020 betting

So far the Kamala Harris announcement hasn’t impacted on the WH2020 betting

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So far there has been very little polling carried out after yesterday’s big announcement that Kamala Harris will be the nominee for VP. In the betting markets the news, which has been widely covered in the US, has hardly moved Biden is seen as about a 60% chance. Last night there was a big event, alas without an audience, in which Harris gave her first big speech since she got on the ticket and however you arrange things this is…

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