Kitchen Cabinet on choosing between the illness and the cure Boris Johnson’s election to the Conservative leadership looks almost assured. As I mentioned on a previous thread, Gavin Williamson looks to have done wonders for BoJo’s election prospects. If you are a Boris hater, I might have some good news for you. There is a way he may not be elected. The bad news (for many) is that the only way for that to happen is to have him face…
With Hunt as his postal ballot opponent he’d have a much softer ride than facing Stewart The recent history of PMs getting the job in a non-contested elections is not a good one. Gordon Brown got his coronation in June 2007 and avoided the probing that would possibly have highlighted his many vulnerabilities. The same happened in July 2016 with TMay. Both of them, I’d argue, would have been better PMs and better general election campaigners if they had had…
My 13/1 “final 2” bet on Stewart looking promising Last week I placed a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money. Almost whenever I publicise a bet people interpret this a prediction which is not the case. Like all these things it is worth repeating that bets are assertions of value. You…
Marf cartoon first appeared after Williamson was sacked A guest slot by The Kitchen Cabinet There are some events that seem unimportant and innocuous at the time but which have far reaching consequences on the longer-term. Historically, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 is the biggest example, an event which, at first, attracted little attention but which set off World War I. Another, far less known, is the financial scandals of President Hindenburg’s son, Oskar, which many believe was…
Airy assertions and motivational phrases do not deliver deals or organise governments The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value. Put simply, the main question is whether he’ll cruise over the line or stumble over it. His safety-first approach may well tend towards the latter outcome for lack of energy and momentum…
“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…
The Tory leadership open thread CON MP voting in the first round of the leadership contest ended at noon and the result is expected by 1pm. Contenders need to have secured 17 or more votes to get into the next round. Gove – 37Hancock – 20Harper – 10 OUTHunt – 43Javid – 23BoJo – 114Leadsom – 11 OUTMcVey – 9 OUTRaab – 27Stewart – 19 — Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) June 13, 2019 Johnson moves to a 79% chance on Betfair…
As CON MPs prepare to vote a look at the bigger picture There is a political divide in Britain. No, not that one. But one between those seeing Brexit as an end in itself and those for whom it is a means to an end. The former seems to comprise most of the Tory party. The candidates for leader seem to agree. “We must do Brexit” they cry. In some cases, one suspects it is said with all the sincerity…