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Category: CON Leadership

If Team Boris thought thought Hunt would be a pushover then this afternoon should disabuse them

If Team Boris thought thought Hunt would be a pushover then this afternoon should disabuse them

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On his first big showing he’s exceeded expectations The story during the final part of the MP balloting for the CON leadership was that Team Boris was working at ways to have their man fight Hunt in the membership part of the selection rather than Michael Gove. Whether the Foreign Secretary’s two vote margin over Gove on Thursday was really down to a Boris plan to make sure he was facing Hunt we don’t know. But on the basis of…

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Brexit: Some Inconvenient Facts that the Tories need to face

Brexit: Some Inconvenient Facts that the Tories need to face

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“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep” – Saul Bellow There are illusions aplenty amongst Tory MPs about how Brexit is going to be achieved by the current candidates for leader, Boris chief among them. Perhaps – like Baldrick – he has a cunning plan. One can but hope. It seems almost indecently rude to spoil these illusions with something as vulgar as facts. But here goes, anyway. 1. There is…

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For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

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Never before has a party membership chosen a PM We are now at a unique stage in British political history when the members of a particular party will by postal ballot decide who the next prime minister shall be. The decisions that members will take are of a different magnitude from other party leadership contests. So we need to see new “final two” CON member polling to establish whether there has been any shift now that we know which two…

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Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

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The YouGov CON members poll on previous CON leaders So it is going to be Johnson and Hunt   who will be on the postal ballot of CON members. To give us an idea of how the current membership view leadership issue I’ve produced the above chart from this month’s YouGov CON members polls. The most negative rating is given to Heath who arguably led his party to the most significant victory in June 1970 ending the first Wilson government.  This…

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Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

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CON leadership vote 3rd round of MPsGove 51Hunt 54Javid 38Johnson 143Stewart 27 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019 So Tory MPs exclude the contender most likely to reach out to centre ground voters. Crazy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

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This raises doubts over BoJo’s ability to win converts YouGov has published what appears to be the only poll carried out on last night’s CON leader debates. The main details are in the YouGov table above. While there’s little doubt that the member for Uxbridge does well with Tory voters but the party is going to need much more than them in a general election and that presents something of a dilemma.  That just 7% of Remain voters gave their…

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If punters have this right the big loser in the CON debate was Stewart – down from a 9% chance to a 4% one

If punters have this right the big loser in the CON debate was Stewart – down from a 9% chance to a 4% one

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Betfair exchange via Betdata.io For those who didn’t watch just check out the comments on the previous thread. Overall I don’t think it has changed much. For me the most impressive performers were Hunt and Javid. Stewart didn’t meet expectations and hence his decline in the betting. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet