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Category: CON Leadership

Corbyn becomes an even stronger betting favourite to be the next PM

Corbyn becomes an even stronger betting favourite to be the next PM

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The current scandals are moving the markets Above is the betdata.io trend chart showing the big movement to Corbyn in the next PM market. This is a crazy market as I’ve observed here before. Fact is that it is hard to see how Corbyn or any Labour leader becomes PM before the next general election and after TMay’s GE2017 experience she is hardly going to precipitate an early election once again. In any case it is hard to see the…

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In the TMay successor betting the BoJo price slumps

In the TMay successor betting the BoJo price slumps

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Betdata.io The political day in the UK has been dominated by the Westminster harassment allegations and the spreadsheet listing the names of MPs, including ministers, said to have committed inappropriate behaviour. Whether this has driven the changes in the next CON leader betting I don’t know. The chart based on Betfair last trades at 2100 GMT is above. The trend has been moving away from the ex-mayor since the election when he stood as a 30% chance. The problem with…

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Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

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She’s doing better than IDS in 2003 Yesterday was the 14th anniversary of what I considered to be one of the best political betting days ever where the best place to find out what was happening was to look at the prices on the Betfair Exchange. After taking over from William Hague two days after 9/11 Iain Duncan Smith struggled for more than 2 years to maintain the confidence of his party and that all finally snapped at the end…

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The next PM could be someone who is opposed to women who’ve been raped having abortions

The next PM could be someone who is opposed to women who’ve been raped having abortions

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Jacob Rees-Mogg says that women who seek abortion after rape are committing a “second wrong” – @zoe_beaty https://t.co/MI1uVvpCUX pic.twitter.com/piinX3n3fN — thepooluk (@thepooluk) October 26, 2017 The Pool If Rees-Mogg goes for it abortion will dominate the campaign Jacob Rees-Mogg continues to feature strongly in the betting for next CON leader and next PM. He’s third favourite for the former and fourth favourite for the latter, The latest Betfair trades in both markets make him a 10% chance. There’s no doubt…

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If it gets to a confidence vote then timings will make it harder for the Whips to defend Theresa

If it gets to a confidence vote then timings will make it harder for the Whips to defend Theresa

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Although the media has moved on she isn’t out of the woods yet No doubt the Number 10 PR team is absolutely delighted that the media has moved on from speculating about TMay’s future as PM but it was a story that dominated the news for five full days. She’s still there and showing resilience. But having been party chair at the time of the last move by CON MPs to oust a leader she’ll be acutely aware of the…

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Ex-Tory chairman Shapps “leading the rebels working to oust TMay”

Ex-Tory chairman Shapps “leading the rebels working to oust TMay”

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Former CON chairman under Cameron, Grant Shapps says that TMay should quit and new leader be electedhttps://t.co/cDyDE3iTGW pic.twitter.com/kQoiVapsna — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2017 Meanwhile YouGov finds the country divided over TMay staying YouGov Times poll taken since TMay's conference speech finds 39% saying she should stay and 38% saying she should go — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2017 So the battle for the future of the Conservative Party is now on with senior figures ready to go…

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A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a successor is in place by Christmas

A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a successor is in place by Christmas

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The only question being asked that matters in British – nay European – politics tonight: does Mrs May survive? — Andrew Neil (@afneil) October 4, 2017 Lots of talk going on in Tory circles tonight over whether TMay should continue in post or whether she should be replaced. The first senior figure to go on the record was the former cabinet minister under Cameron, Ed Vaizey. He said:- “..“I think there will be quite a few people who will now…

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Big danger for TMay is that the Tory process for ousting a leader is totally separate from the contest that would follow

Big danger for TMay is that the Tory process for ousting a leader is totally separate from the contest that would follow

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There would be no identified assassin One of the things that doesn’t seem to have been appreciated about the CON rules is that the process of ousting a leader is totally separate from the leadership election that could follow. If 15% of Conservative MPs, 47, request that there is a confidence vote in the leader then that would happen without those behind it having to identify themselves and without the move being linked to any of the names that have…

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