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Category: CON Leadership

Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader

Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader

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    Considering how fondly it is remembered as a children’s book, The Hobbit has a lot of gore in it.  (The alert will already have figured out that I’m going to be talking about Conservative leadership manoeuvrings.)  Bilbo Baggins is threatened with imminent devourment on five separate occasions, which would make even the most gung-ho adventurer feel put out.  On the first of these occasions, he has been captured by trolls.  They quiz him about whether there are others…

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Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

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Labour’s front-bench inexperience has been shown up as much as Rudd’s errors Politics is not just showbiz for ugly people; it’s also sport for the energetic, enthusiastic, passionate but physically average. Although virtually all politicians go into it because they believe strongly in at least some aspects of what their party stands for and because they want to see the reforms they champion implemented, most also simply enjoy practising politics – the camaraderie of (and rivalry within) the teams, the…

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Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

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Now a clear third in the betting behind Moggsy & BoJo The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair. The beleaguered Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, has now slipped down to be a 3% chance. Meanwhile Michael Gove has edged up to a clear 3rd place on a 7% chance. He’s behind…

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Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

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The YouGov favourability trackers are just about the only polling where we can compare leaders with their parties on the same basis. The same question is asked in exactly the same form to the same sample whether people have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of CON/LAB/TMay/Corbyn. It is also a tracker which is asked in the same form at regular intervals which means there are enough data points to examine trends. The movement in the leader and party ratings since…

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Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

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Talk of letters to Graham Brady is probably just talk It has been reported over the weekend that Mrs May could possibly face a challenge over the issue of whether Britain remains in a Customs Union after Brexit. Hardline Brexiteers are absolutely resolute that this should not happen and have been making vibes that should Mrs May concede what seems to be the position of Brussels then she could face a confidence vote. There are warnings about that in order…

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Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

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My money’s on Nigella Lawson, who accepted the bet, winning Fifteen years ago Toby Young had a bet of £15,000 with Nigella Lawson that Boris Johnson would become Tory leader by 2018. Well the days are ticking away and there are just eight months and 26 days to go for the event to happen and Young to pick up his winnings. In 2011 Tim Montgomerie wrote about the bet on ConHome quoting an article by Young in the Spectator:- Since…

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Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

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There’s no talk now of letters calling for a confidence vote One of the features about the current Russia crisis is what it is doing to perceptions of Theresa May. The latest polling overnight showing her getting huge backing from voters for the way she is handling things reflect how her approach is very much resonating with the public mood. I thought yesterday her walk-about in Salisbury contrasted so much with some of the awful public appearances at the general…

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The extraordinary comment on Russia by the DefSec and the man who TMay is said to want to succeed her

The extraordinary comment on Russia by the DefSec and the man who TMay is said to want to succeed her

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Has Gavin Williamson (AKA “Private Pike”) blown it? I’ve been in London all day and have only just viewed the above for myself – the comment from the Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson that Russia should just “go away and shut up”. Apparently this wasn’t just a spur of the moment comment but one that he had drafted before. It hardly seems the sort of language you would expect a minister in a senior position to make in the current situation…

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