Can the rebels be curtailed yet again? After the Brexit bill defeat for the government on the in the Lords on Monday the issue is now back in the commons and there’ll be a big vote on whether to accept what the Lord’s decided. The stakes are very high indeed because if the measure goes through it will have a huge impact on the way that ongoing negotiations on the deal take place. Essentially if it passes Mrs Mays hands…
The Sajid Javid move is in line with public opinion The big news from Westminster this afternoon is that the Home Secretary has announced a review on the legalisation of cannabis for medical use – something that has become a big issue because of the Billy Caldwell case. The main recent poll on this comes from a YouGov survey last month and I illustrate the age splits in the chart above. What I find really interesting is that the older…
Sajid Javid repeatedly tried to raise the Billy Caldwell case at Cabinet this morning. But Theresa May blocked him, saying it wasn’t on the agenda https://t.co/CDya3Gnh1J — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) June 18, 2018 TMay looks tin-eared on the Billy Caldwell case Las month YouGov found that 75% of those polled backed allowing doctors to prescribe cannabis for medical use – with just 12% opposing. Support was fairly even across the parties with 73% of Tory voters giving their support. In…
Betdata.io Theresa’s travails on Brexit over the past week have made it that bit less possible that she’ll survive as leader and PM to Brexit and beyond. I thought John Rentoul summed this up right in the Indy: “Until this week, I assumed May would be the prime minister who took us out of the EU in March. Her strategy of delay, procrastination and attrition isn’t pretty, and risks cutting the Brexit deadline fine, but it seemed to be working….
We read in the weekend papers that the Brexiters within the Conservative party are mustering for an attempt in July to despatch Theresa May, once Royal Assent has been received to the withdrawal bill. Sources close to David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg are covering their retreat in the face of the Prime Minister’s obduracy over future customs arrangements with the EU with a hail of Parthian shots. Her opponents already have 42 MPs ready to lodge letters for a vote…
Is Michael Gove about to break the golden rule about laying the favourite to be next Tory leader? In the last 24 hours the major betting news has been Michael Gove becoming the favourite in the next Tory leader market, both Betfair and Ladbrokes have seen this shift. For those of us who have been laying both Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg this is great news and seemingly inevitable given the history of laying the favourite for the Tory leader…
Corbyn could be losing his advantages with the youth vote The narrative that started following the shock general election result last June was that Corbyn and his party had managed tap into the youth vote who were turning out in greater numbers than at recent elections. Much of this can be seen in looking at the age splits to leadership ratings and who would make the best prime minister findings from different pollsters since the election. Certainly up to now…
Being seen to be successful ministers will be crucial Ever since last June when Theresa May lost the Conservative Party its majority there has always been a chance of a leadership contest. We have had repeated stories about MPs being ready to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence vote. The fact that this has not materialised so far doesn’t mean it is not going to happen. In view of the febrile state of the…