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Category: CON Leadership

BoJo back on top of the ConHome preferred next leader ratings

BoJo back on top of the ConHome preferred next leader ratings

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Up from 8% to 29% in a month Former Mayor of London and former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, who quit the cabinet last month over the Chequers deal, has seen a remarkable upsurge in his fortunes in the monthly ConservativeHome survey of preferred next leader survey. He’s now on 29% up from the 8% of a month ago. These monthly surveys are proving to be hugely volatile but interesting all the same. Sajid Javid the previous number one dropped two…

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Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay

Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay

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Betdata.io Even if Mrs May survives as Conservative leader until after Brexit we could still be less than 9 months away from a leadership contest that would choose not just the blue team’s flag carrier but, of course, the Prime Minister. As can be seen from the chart which plots Betfair changes over the past month there is an incredible amount of movement with money going in and out of one candidate after another. I’ve long felt that the former…

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Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

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If its like the IDS ousting the first signs will be on Betfair Since the Conservative Party introduced its new leadership roles while William Hague was in charge the procedure for getting rid of the incumbent has only been used once. That was, of course, the ousting of Iain Duncan Smith in October 2003. What was intriguing about that dismissal was that the events behind closed doors in Westminster were largely being reflected on Betfair. Like now there were two…

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TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

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May rejects claim accepting Tory Brexiter amendments means 'Chequers deal now dead' https://t.co/tzNxFys2Hv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2018 Moggsy now appears to running the Brexit show Totally agree with what @DavidHerdson has written here about Mrs May accepting the ERG amendments. pic.twitter.com/FGexPLIib6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 16, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

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Wikipedia Just 8 years ago it won 41 Scottish seats – latest polls have that down to 1 The two GB polls over the weekend from Deltapoll and Opinium were both very good for LAB showing clear leads which weren’t down to its share increasing but the biggest shares for UKIP since GE2017. Certainly based on these figures if there was an early general election then Corbyn’s party would be in a strong position to become top party although an…

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The Tory leadership – an alternative view

The Tory leadership – an alternative view

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Ian Whittaker on why Esther McVey might be the one to watch David’s piece yesterday was very insightful on the mechanics for how a new Conservative leader could be elected. I wanted to add a few thoughts on what has happened over the past week, and what are the betting implications on the political front. First of all, standing back, the last week has been, objectively, a disaster for Theresa May. That may seem harsh and it puts me odd…

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Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON leader

Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON leader

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With the pressure on Mrs Mays leadership there has been renewed interest in who will succeed her and a change in the favourite on the Betfair exchange. The previous long-term favourite, who was edged out by Javid, Rees-Mogg is now back there as the one the punters most fancy. A lot of course depends on when a contest takes place and it has been interesting that Moggsy’s hard brexit faction has not been ready to “press the button” on a…

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If there is a Tory leadership election, it could go turbo

If there is a Tory leadership election, it could go turbo

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We shouldn’t assume that the next one will follow the path of the previous Theresa May has had a surprisingly good week. For one thing, she’s still prime minister. This is, admittedly, setting the bar quite low but it was nothing like a foregone conclusion that she’d still be safe in post today, this time last week. Instead, she’s being praised for handling Trump’s visit with tact and dignity despite his provocations. That comes on top of the government having…

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