Browsed by
Category: CON Leadership

It might not be his objective but the Arron Banks plan makes TMay’s survival more likely

It might not be his objective but the Arron Banks plan makes TMay’s survival more likely

Comments 0 Comment

For it to work there has to be a vacancy and there isn’t one While LAB has continued its self destructive row on antisemitism the focus has been off the Tories in the past couple of weeks even though the blues are as split as ever over Brexit. Even so TMay might be pleased that all the latest ratings her net figures have her moving up while Corbyn has slipped sharply. Opinium, Deltapoll and YouGov now have her ahead of…

Read More Read More

Outsiders have rarely become PM – but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done

Outsiders have rarely become PM – but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done

Comments 0 Comment

By Photo: Sergeant Tom Robinson Besides, the ‘rules’ might be changing TSE wrote last week that “on all seven occasions since World War II when parties have changed PM mid-term, the new PM has always been an incumbent of a great office of state”. He might have gone further. Other than in war-time, with two exceptions, every prime minister between Palmerston and May who succeeded a member of their own party or coalition, had either been Chancellor or Foreign Secretary…

Read More Read More

Numerology. The next Conservative leader

Numerology. The next Conservative leader

Comments 0 Comment

Let me let you in on a dirty secret.  An awful lot of lawyers are terrified of maths.  They can make words sit up and beg, but put them in front of a formula and they quiver.  When the rate of VAT rose to 20%, many lawyers were privately delighted because the calculation was so much easier to do.  Nevertheless, I have maths ahead.  You have been warned. The Conservative party leadership race is conducted under unusual rules.  The Parliamentary…

Read More Read More

Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

Comments 0 Comment

Why I’m betting on no leadership contest in 2018. Paddy Power’s market on whether there will be a Tory leadership contest in 2018 intrigues me. I’ve confirmed with them the precise terms of this bet. A vote of no confidence being called will not be enough, what needs to happen is for either Mrs May to lose a vote of confidence or resign and the Chairman of the 1922 committee to start accepting nominations for Mrs May’s successor. After Chequers…

Read More Read More

The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s position a bit more secure

The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s position a bit more secure

Comments 0 Comment

How many are going to no confidence her if he’s alternative? Much has been written about the incredible resilience of Theresa May who has managed to hang on to her job now for well over a year after losing the party it’s majority in the June 2017 general election. She became a contender in the post referendum Conservative leadership race in July 2016 with her backers arguing that she was the one for the party to get behind in order…

Read More Read More

BoJo’ s controversial burka comments don’t seem to have hurt him in the TMay successor betting

BoJo’ s controversial burka comments don’t seem to have hurt him in the TMay successor betting

Comments 0 Comment

But they could make it harder getting on the ballot With TMay herself now joining those attacking BoJo for his Burka comments the big danger he faces is not being able to get enough fellow CON MPs to support him in the first rounds of voting to get on the ballot. It is precisely this type of comment that raises big question marks over his judgement. It appears to be attention-seeking. I’ve little doubt that if he got to the…

Read More Read More

History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid Javid will be Theresa May’s successor if she goes before the next election

History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid Javid will be Theresa May’s successor if she goes before the next election

Comments 0 Comment

On all seven occasions since World War II when parties have changed PM mid term the new PM has always been an incumbent of a great office of state. On three occasions the incumbent Foreign Secretary has taken over, Sir Anthony Eden succeeding Sir Winston Churchill in 1955, Alec Douglas-Home succeeding Harold MacMillan in 1963, and James Callaghan succeeding Harold Wilson in 1976. On three occasions the incumbent Chancellor of the Exchequer has taken over, in 1957 Harold MacMillan succeeding…

Read More Read More

If the senior Tory quoted here is right TMay will be out this autumn

If the senior Tory quoted here is right TMay will be out this autumn

Comments 0 Comment

A senior Tory MP tells me chances of May being ousted this autumn are “100%” such is the rage at her handling of Brexit. Is she tonight pleading with Macron to give her something — anything — otherwise he will be dealing with Johnson or Gove? https://t.co/4o6beG4Id4 — Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris) August 3, 2018 On Betfair it’s a 38% chance that she’ll be out this year I’ll believe it when I see it. Tory MPs, surely, will only back a…

Read More Read More