Browsed by
Category: CON Leadership

This might be the moment for Rory Stewart – the old Etonian of whom great things were predicted even before he became an MP

This might be the moment for Rory Stewart – the old Etonian of whom great things were predicted even before he became an MP

Comments 0 Comment

He’s become TMay’s main Brexit defender Great things were predicted for Rory Stewart after his selection as CON candidate ahead of GE2010 for the safe seat of Penrith. He attracted an enormous amount of coverage and in December 2009 Ladbrokes made him the 12/1 fourth favourite to succeed Cameron as CON leader. To get a sense of the atmosphere at the time this was from a glowing profile from Anna van Praagh in the Sunday Telegraph in 2009. “Britain doesn’t…

Read More Read More

Boris might need much more than Moggsy’s public backing if he’s to make it

Boris might need much more than Moggsy’s public backing if he’s to make it

Comments 0 Comment

Moggsy appears to be ruling himself out of the leadership and is set to back fellow Etonian BoJohttps://t.co/Snu75YfUiB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2018 The main development in the Conservative leadership “contest” this morning has been an article by Moggsy in the hardline Brexit supporting Spectator ruling himself out of the leadership and giving support for the former Mayor and fellow Etonian, Mr Johnson. For a long period early in the year Rees-Mogg was favourite in the betting and…

Read More Read More

After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov

After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov

Comments 0 Comment

This is as negative for the ERG gang as it is positive for the PM On the front page of the Times  this morning there is a report on part of its latest YouGov poll relating to its TMay trackers asking whether and when she should go. Last week’s poll came just as the Brexit deal was being published and had the most negative numbers yet for the PM. In just a week as the chart above shows there’s been…

Read More Read More

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

Comments 0 Comment

At one stage in my career I used to advise Betfair on the precise market rules for its political markets. These are critically important because an exchange like Betfair stands in between those who are laying bets and those who are backing and needs to have something to fall back on should there be a disagreement. So anytime you want to make a political bet it is important for your own protection to check the market rules. The currently heavy…

Read More Read More

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

Comments 0 Comment

Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10. Well 18 months on she is still there and I now approach the end of the year with completely the opposite betting position. My money is on the Prime Minister being the Prime Minister and Tory leader at the end of the year. This is a…

Read More Read More

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

Comments 0 Comment

BBC 5 Live ?@JPonpolitics? Sir Graham Brady, 1922 Chairman, on letters – and lies pic.twitter.com/udTFfVr7z4 — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 BBC @JPonpolitics Sir Graham Brady I/v I don’t support a no confidence vote at this time, says Sir Graham pic.twitter.com/uE74yQT1Lm — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1063925003325005825 The comments from Sir Graham Brady & the ERG in the Sunday Times makes me think the ERG don't have the numbers to oust Mrs May. The ERG…

Read More Read More