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Category: CON Leadership

HealthSec Hancock edges up in the betting for next CON leader and PM

HealthSec Hancock edges up in the betting for next CON leader and PM

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange A PB tip in January when he was 65/1 Ladbrokes is reporting this afternoon that the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, is being heavily backed to become the next leader of the Conservative Party and of course Prime Minister. The bookie ascribe this to him dropping hints that he may enter the Tory leadership race which is relatively imminent given the statements by Theresa May about her exit plan. Ladbrokes have his odds…

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CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and more about personal characteristics

CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and more about personal characteristics

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After TMay the Tories need someone who does “human” Every day it seems we have a new potential candidate for the next Conservative leader. Liz Truss tells us how she will say what she wants and wear what she wants in the Sunday Times, Dominic Raab tells us what he will do about knife crime, Even IDS may be making a comeback (sorry, joke – I am assuming that was the April’s Fool Day story, right?) However, one theme that…

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Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be in tatters and that has betting implications

Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be in tatters and that has betting implications

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Michael Gove 2016 > "The day after we leave, we hold all the cards" Michael Gove 2019 > “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit tariffs on beef and sheep meat would be above 40%”#PieceOfShit pic.twitter.com/dFOPRklr3V — Marie-Ann Detests Tories ?? ?? ?? (@MarieAnnUK) March 20, 2019 Like David Herdson I fear that No Deal is imminent and likely, especially with 170 Tory MPs in favour of it, so what are the implications…

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This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith looking to succeed Theresa May. I REPEAT THIS IS NOT AN EARLY APRIL FOOLS’ DAY STORY

This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith looking to succeed Theresa May. I REPEAT THIS IS NOT AN EARLY APRIL FOOLS’ DAY STORY

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Iain Duncan Smith eyes second spell as Tory leader as he considers throwing hat into ring to succeed PMhttps://t.co/m3mBiYerB0 pic.twitter.com/kI6FXinrRC — Mirror World News (@MirrorWorldNews) March 30, 2019 Why I’m not betting on the quiet man succeeding Mrs May. When I first saw the tweet above my reaction was a mixture of laughter and language not fit to be published on a family friendly website like politicalbetting. But once I read the story I’m quite prepared to bet a lot…

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24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove the clear betting favourite to be next PM

24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove the clear betting favourite to be next PM

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange We are going to see a lot of this chart in the next few weeks – how punters on the Betfair exchange are seeing the Tory succession. I choose Betfair because this is an exchange market where punters, not bookmakers, are setting the odds and you do get more movement. At the moment it is the Environment Secretary Michael Gove who is making the running ahead of ex-Mayor, Johnson. Interesting that the…

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It’s time we moved back to MPs choosing the party leader instead not members

It’s time we moved back to MPs choosing the party leader instead not members

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Having a leader who is not the choice of MPs will inevitably lead to problems Consider where British politics is quite likely to be in a few months time – LAB still being led by Corbyn who is opposed by most of his MPs and Johnson being the CON leader in spite of his relative lack of parliamentary support Both would be in their jobs because of their appeal to party members and neither command the support of their parliamentary…

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The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

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Will she stay if Brexit doesn’t happen? It is not often that the papers are all at one over what is the big news of the day. Interestingly as well they mostly use the same picture of Theresa May to illustrate their stories and this, my guess, will go down as a match to the shots of Maggie Thatcher in the car as she was leaving Downing Street for the last time in November 1990. The problem with her withdrawal…

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Even though TMay slumped to her worst ever Ipsos-MORI PM ratings & Corbyn has the second worst Opposition leader rating

Even though TMay slumped to her worst ever Ipsos-MORI PM ratings & Corbyn has the second worst Opposition leader rating

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Never have the views of both CON & LAB leaders been so poor Just out today is the latest Ipsos-MORI political monitor whicht has the Tories taking a lead of 4% over labour. Last time the two main parties were level pegging. Also, as ever, included are the firm’s  leader satisfaction number a polling series that is now into its forty-third year. For the Corbyn and TMay the ratings are dreadful. The former has the second worst Opposition leader numbers…

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