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Skipton West on Craven (Lib Dem defence) Result: Labour 185 (24% +2%), Liberal Democrats 143 (19% -8%), Conservatives 131 (17% -9%), UKIP 126 (16%), Independent 120 (16% -2%), Green 67 (9%) Labour GAIN from Liberal Democrats with a majority of 42 (5%) on a swing of 5% from Lib Dem to Lab Skipton West on North Yorkshire (Lib Dem defence) Result: Independent 391 (23% -1%), Conservative 355 (21% +1%), Liberal Democrats 309 (19% -10%), UKIP 238 (14%), Green 194 (12%…

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The Scottish Independence Referendum: polls from the last two months (Wikipedia) http://t.co/EdVHyAIdls pic.twitter.com/7po7alHTbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 YouGov’s Peter Kellner fires the opening salvos There was a time when you asked YouGov’s Peter Kellner why his figures were very different from other firms he would respond by saying that he never commented about how other firms operated. No more. Last night Peter launched a sharp attack in a long blog post on some other pollsters, particularly Survation,…

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Only Ashcroft has CON in the lead The one thing that is absolutely certain about GE2015 is that it will be the most polled general election ever. Today we’ve had four full national voting intention polls which I don’t think has happened since May 5th 2010. Just keeping up has been challenging and interpreting the data even harder. The LAB lead increased with Populus but has dropped with YouGov and ComRes and there’s been crossover with Ashcroft. Mike Smithson 2004-2014:…

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If this was the only marginals polling about LAB would be pressing the panic button In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats. 25 of the seats included currently have CON MPs – the other 15 LAB ones. When analysing all poll findings from the marginals the key thing is the…

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The comparisons in the chart are from Survation poll taken in the days after the May 22nd Euros. The fact that this poll coincides with a week that saw the Coulson verdict and the Cameron stand-off in the EU over the presidency doesn’t necessarily mean that these events have impacted on voting plans. We have always got to be careful not to confuse correlation with causation. We need more polling before we can start to draw any conclusions. But Labour…

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The GE2015 projections from the model by Oxford's @StephenDFisher are getting tighter http://t.co/aKqk5ESWlq See pic.twitter.com/YDfyoPeGP9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2014

Concern about immigration now takes over from the economy as main concern in @IpsosMORI Issues Index See pic.twitter.com/m2IDfDKVZU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 Concerns on the economy move to a six year low Concern about the economy drops to its lowest level for six years according to June @IpsosMORI Issues Index See pic.twitter.com/fQNHF8Gzfa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 Concerns over the EU move to nine year high Concern about the EU moves to nine year high in @IpsosMORI…

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Swanwick on Amber Valley (Conservative WIN in 2010) Result: Conservatives 474 (36% -14% on 2010) Labour 298 (23% -8% on 2010) Independent 252 (19%) UKIP 245 (19%) Lib Dem 32 (2% -17% on 2010) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 176 (13%) on a swing of 3% from Conservative to Labour New Amber Valley Composition: Labour 23, Conservatives 22 (Labour overall majority of 1) Colindale Dale on Barnet (3 Labour WINS in 2010) Result (by party and candidate) : Emboldened…

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