David Herdson on what what might happen to upset the consensus on the GE2015 outcome
We should thinking more about the range of possibilities I was struck at the politicalbetting meet in Ilkley on Monday how much consensus there was about the likely result of the next election. The great majority expected Labour as the largest party in another hung parliament. That’s the view of the betting markets too: Labour is best priced at 9/10 with bwin to win most seats (more generally 5/6 or 4/5), while the Tories are odds against only with Ladbrokes…
Local By-Election Results with news of a Lib Dem gain from CON in a seat where they were 4th
Penistone West on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 772 (31% -17%), Conservatives 719 (29% -17%), UKIP 622 (25%), Independent 348 (14%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 53 (2%) on no swing from Lab to Con since 2012 Boughton (Lab Defence) and Winnington and Castle (Lab Defence) on Cheshire West and Chester Boughton Result: Labour 614 (45% -7%), Conservatives 469 (34% -6%), UKIP 131 (10%), Green 86 (6%), Liberal Democrats 70 (5% -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 145…
Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Elections Preview : July 10th 2014
Penistone West on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 53, Independents 5, Conservatives 4 (Labour overall majority of 44) Result of ward in last electoral cycle 2011: Conservative 1,836 (47%), Labour 1,298 (33%), Independent 558 (14%), British National Party 195 (5%) (Con HOLD) 2012: Labour 1,389 (48%), Conservative 1,337 (46%), Liberal Democrats 190 (7%) (Lab GAIN) 2014: Labour 1,015 (29%), Conservative 973 (28%), UKIP 891 (25%), Independent 635 (18%) (Lab GAIN) Candidates duly nominated: David…
To have any chance next May the Tories need to neutralise the NHS as an issue
The latest YouGov issues tracker showing rising concerns about health pic.twitter.com/3TuSXsxOYS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2014 Look at the differences between the two tables I very much like the YouGov two stage approach to issues polling teasing out large differences between what’s important to the country and what is important to those questioned and their families. In my view the one that is electorally most important is the latter. People, I’d argue, think most first of themselves and their…
If the Conservatives do lose power next May they’d be foolish to get rid of Cameron
He’s the party’s biggest asset If things go the way of current polling then it is highly likely that within less then a year we could have three separate leadership contests. Farage has said he’ll stand down if his party fails to get an MP and it is hard to see Clegg being able to carry on if the election results in the disaster being predicted by the polls. But what about the Tories? From past experience we know that…
Predicting GE2015 – my session with YouGov’s Joe Twyman
Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm
And an event is planned for Manchester on September 23rd Thanks to all those who’ve contacted me about the Ilkley event on Monday. This’ll be held in the Flying Duck pub from about 6.30pm. We’ll probably be upstairs. The address is 16 Church Street and the postcode is LS29 9DS. It was on the route for today’s opening stage of the Tour de France. I’m told that Monday evening is generally the quietest and most of the TDF crowds will…