Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6% This compares with the earlier Populus online phone poll that had the LAB lead moving from zero to 5%. Both are featured in the chart above. The Ashcroft changes are bigger than the margin…
David Herdson on Cameron’s line-up for GE2015 Squaring circles is part of the business of politics. One such conundrum David Cameron has to face is how to simultaneously make the party he leads more appealing to centrist floating voters while also attracting back those who’ve defected to UKIP. On the face of it, those are two incompatible objectives: how can a party move both left and right at the same time? The simple answer is it can’t; the more complex…
Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of last election in ward (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Scottish Nationalists 410, 707 (31%) Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: Gerry Fisher (SNP), Kieron Green (Lab), John MacGregor (Ind), Marri Malloy (Ind), Andrew…
What’s marked here is the readiness of those polled across the spectrum to back Cameron. Also note the contrast between the Gove doing good job numbers and the reshuffle finding. You would expect them to be closer. My view on this remains – it was a smart move by the PM which will, at the margin, have a positive electoral impact in the blues favour. Meanwhile Clegg’s got a Twitter hit on his hands What I wore to the office…
Evening Standard reporting Ipsos-MORI that has Gove the "most unpopular politician in Britain" http://t.co/P8IOVtTwBu pic.twitter.com/0LhC4dNTGe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 This is from Joe Murphy’s Standard report:- ” Ipsos MORI found just 22 per cent of the public say they like Mr Gove, while 54 per cent dislike him. A derisory 11 per cent think he has what it takes to be a prime minister, while 66 per cent say he does not. The findings come from the final…
John McTernan sums this up brilliantly Theme of the #reshuffle is weakness. Teachers hate Gove; green lobby hate Paterson; euro-sceptics hate Clarke/Hague. All shall have scalps. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) July 15, 2014 Liz Truss promotion to cabinet almost 2 years after this @NewStatesman cover tipped her as Iron Lady 2.0 pic.twitter.com/ICMQsSgFKe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2014
Tories take lead – Ukip down 7 – in latest ICM/Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/abv7Nah6BT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 ICM was the most accurate pollster at GE1997, GE2001, GE2010 and in the AV referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 The ICM/Guardian poll is out and the big move is Ukip falling by 7 points on the month. This has helped boost the Tories who are now 1% ahead of LAB. The LDs, meanwhile, are up 2 at…
More details from the @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/kPSMumpyJ7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 Another poll to worry the LD leadership The LD 7% the the lowest recorded since the Ashcroft weekly phone poll began in May. What’s is startling is the size of the fall from 11% to just 7% in just a week. This is greater than the margin of error. Earlier the Populus Monday poll showed no decline in the LD share which it had up 1%…