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Cameron retains his 17% lead with YouGov as best PM pic.twitter.com/ai1oNmBJ4N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2014 Why are the Tories not in the lead? One of the ongoing mysteries is why CON continue to lag behind LAB in the voting intention polls. The economy is recovering and this is now being seen by voters. On top of that the Tories retain a solid lead over LAB as best party on the economy. We also have the Ed Miliband…

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CON odds on with Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh to win most votes, LAB odds to win most seats. Best bet 4/1 dbl pic.twitter.com/80ZexOnrbP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2014 My current reading is that UKIP returnees will gradually boost CON shares while LAB will retain almost all the 2010 LD switchers which has been the bed-rock of their polling for nearly four years. This means that in terms of national vote shares the outcome will be very tight. The voting patterns…

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This is the lowest UKIP share since the firm’s methodology change in February What will really please the Tories is that, like ICM last week, the UKIP drop has been accompanied by a rise in the CON share, It holds out hope that the Tories could move into the lead even though LAB stays constant. The crazy thing about GE2015 is that it is really about two battles: CON versus UKIP to get the switchers back and LAB versus LD…

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UKIP GAIN from LAB in EdM's backyard Edenthorpe on Doncaster UKIP 1,203 LAB 1,109 CON 479 GRN 160 EdM sits for Doncaster N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2014 Farage’s party gains council seat from LAB with 41% of vote in EdM’s Doncaster N backyard There are a lot of places in Yorkshire which spring to mind as good conference venues. Harrogate, Scarborough, York and Leeds would probably be the main choices but not, I’d suggest, Doncaster which is where the Ukip…

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Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence) Last election to council (2011): Labour 27, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 12) Last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,090, 911 Conservatives 567, 475 Independent 221 Candidates duly nominated: Bruce Allen (Con), Gita Gordon (Lib Dem), Tina Rothery (Green), Spencer Shackleton (UKIP), Luke Taylor (Lab), Phillip Watt (TUSC) It has been said that to holiday in Blackpool, you should count on nothing being the same. It may be hot…

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Immigration down 3% in @IpsosMORI Issues Index but still the main concen. Health up 3 & Crime up 4 pic.twitter.com/7pEci2lB9q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Above is the top ten from the July Ipsos-MORI issues index which featured in the previous thread. The risers and and fallers are all there.

The sharp & extraordinary decline of the economy as a key issue – @IpsosMORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/VpJtLoS1sb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Don’t assume that voters do gratitude All the economic indicators in recent months have been positive for the coalition and this is picked up in the July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index where concern about the economy has continued its sharp and quite dramatic fall. This is the monthly polling that has been carried out in exactly the…

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Ukip favourite to win S Thanet where it's said Farage will stand pic.twitter.com/3YAcDeUDY4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 South Thanet heading to be a great 3-way tussle I love Westminster seats battles where at least three parties are in with a shout. The betting on them can be very interesting and chances are that you’ll get longer than evens on the winner. South Thanet in Kent, won from LAB by pro-EU Tory, Laura Sandys, in May looks set…

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